The recent record high in gold prices has sparked discussions among financial analysts about its implications for the economy. Analysts suggest that this trend could signal an economic slowdown, potentially leading to reduced interest rates by the end of the year. They expect gold prices to continue rising, which has raised questions about whether this trend is a positive or negative indicator.

According to some experts, geopolitical tensions over the past two years, anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the American economic slowdown are key factors driving the record gold prices. Zdravko Pirinliev, an investment analyst, notes that if the US economy continues to slow, it could pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, a trend that is mirrored in Europe.

Other experts argue that the rising gold prices reflect the depreciation of the currency in which gold is valued rather than a true increase in gold's value. Max Baklayan, executive director of an investment gold company, points out that the proliferation of unsecured currency and new debt is leading to inflation. Gold, as a hedge against inflation, serves as a barometer for the amount of new, unsecured currency in the economy.

The price of gold often reflects the health of the economy. Analysts observe that higher gold prices can indicate economic distress. There are concerns about whether the current market conditions will lead to a recession or if the economy will experience a "soft landing." The risk level is perceived to be higher now compared to two years ago.

Central banks have been actively purchasing gold, with nearly 290 tons bought in the first quarter of this year. In 2024, gold surpassed the euro as the largest asset held on central bank balance sheets, indicating a preference for gold over the euro among central bankers.

The euro, to which the Bulgarian lev is tied, has depreciated by 35% over the past four years. Since the start of this year, gold prices have increased by 23 euros, providing protection against inflation and offering potential profit opportunities.

Interest in investment gold is high in Bulgaria, which ranks third in Europe, after Germany and Poland, in gold purchases per capita relative to GDP. Sales of investment gold in Bulgaria increased by 10% in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year.