This week, "Newsweek" published a forecast by General Roly Walker, the new Chief of the General Staff of the British Army, analyzing the cost for Putin to completely conquer the four new "primarily Russian" regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Walker estimates it would take another five years and result in 1.5 to 1.8 million casualties, along with billions of dollars in lost military equipment. Despite the grim outlook, it appears Putin is willing to pay this price, literally buying soldiers for cannon fodder and continuously increasing the financial incentives.

An analysis by Kamen Nevenkin for BNT highlights that the 2022 mobilization was a major misstep for the regime, temporarily filling army gaps but prompting hundreds of thousands to flee abroad. The mobilization failed to ignite the expected patriotic fervor, prompting the Kremlin to resort to financial incentives. Local governors offer varying rates, with Moscow leading by offering 1.9 million rubles (21,000 US dollars) upon contract signing and over 2,000 dollars monthly, a substantial amount in Russia. This financial bait lures many naive individuals, often pressured by their families, into signing contracts.

However, few recruits realize the dire reality they face, with slim chances of survival against the powerful Armed Forces of Ukraine. Contracts are officially for six months but automatically renew every six months until the "special operation" ends. Putin currently recruits up to 30,000 "volunteers" per month, barely covering the losses. However, enthusiasm is waning, with reliable reports suggesting real recruitment numbers are closer to 20,000. The State Duma attributes this decline to the spread of information via social media and anti-Putin channels on YouTube, prompting a ban on mobile phones in battle zones and reduced YouTube speeds in Russia.

Rumors of a new, likely larger mobilization are spreading, with Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsimbalyuk predicting the war will be fought "to the last Russian."