According to a recent survey by "Exacta Research Group," approximately 40% of Bulgarians, translating to around 2.5 to 2.7 million voters, are expected to participate in the national parliamentary elections on June 9 this year. For the European elections, the turnout is anticipated to be 3% lower, but slightly higher than the previous European elections in May 2019.

The survey, conducted between May 30 and June 4, 2024, involved 1,050 adult Bulgarian citizens through direct, semi-standardized "face-to-face" interviews. Sociologists noted that the "2 in 1" formula for the current elections has generated slightly more interest in the Euro vote among the public.

Despite this, "Exacta Research Group" suggests that Bulgarians' interest in elections can only be fully revived by a vote resulting in a well-functioning regular cabinet with a complete governing mandate. Until then, many citizens feel that voting is an unnecessary effort.

The survey revealed that 29.1% of Bulgarians plan to vote preferentially in the parliamentary elections, while 23.8% intend to do so in the European elections. Voters from the core supporters of "We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria" (WCC-DB), "There Is Such a People" (TISP), and GERB are more likely to vote with preferences (PV) in both types of elections.

From the start of the campaign until its last week, there was a slight increase in support for "Revival," the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), and TISP. Conversely, there was a decrease in support for WCC-DB, which could further widen GERB's lead over WCC-DB as the campaign concludes.

Some newly formed coalitions and parties have successfully attracted young people and disillusioned voters during the election campaign. "Blue Bulgaria" and "Solidary Bulgaria" are entering the final phase of the campaign with strong results, while "SWORD" and "Greatness" have also gained political support.

Sociological data indicate that GERB is poised to win the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, the battle for second place among WCC-DB, "Revival," and DPS remains intense, with potential shifts in their rankings possible on election day.

WCC-DB and "Revival" are expected to perform better in the Euro vote compared to the parliamentary elections. Conversely, GERB, DPS, and smaller parties, including new formations, are likely to receive lower support in the Euro vote.

While GERB's leadership in both the parliamentary and European elections appears secure, WCC-DB's second-place position in the European elections seems more certain than in the parliamentary elections.

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