According to the express estimates of the National Statistical Institute, during the fourth quarter of 2023, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year and by 0.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023, based on seasonally adjusted data.

According to this information, the GDP for the last four months of 2023 increased by 1.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, while gross value added increased by 0.2%. Final consumption recorded a growth of 3.1%, and gross fixed capital formation increased by 4.2%. Goods and services exports decreased by 1.0%, while goods and services imports decreased by 5.4%.

According to the express estimates of the National Statistical Institute for the fourth quarter of 2023, the gross domestic product (GDP) in nominal terms reached 51,055.0 million leva. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the realized value added amounted to 44,444.9 million leva. Among the components of final usage, the largest share in gross domestic product is taken by final consumption - 81.7%, which amounts to 41,697.4 million leva in value. Gross capital formation in the last quarter of 2023 amounted to 10,132.5 million leva, constituting 19.8% of the total GDP. The trade balance is negative.

The economic prediction by the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) is for an economic growth of 2.5%, while the European Commission is more skeptical, expecting a growth of 1.8%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ministry of Finance predict a more significant growth of 3.2%. It is expected that private consumption will remain the main engine of economic growth this year, although with a lower growth compared to previous years.