Economic expansion in Bulgaria is expected to slow in 2023 before picking up in 2024, according to the European Commission's "spring forecasts".

After GDP growth of 3.4% last year, the EC expects it to slow to 1.5% in 2023 before accelerating to 2.4% in 2024.

Bulgarian export growth is expected to slow this year due to weak foreign demand and country-specific one-off factors. Household consumption growth is expected to moderate towards the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024 as real interest rates rise and wage growth slows, the EC also noted.

Inflation is expected to slow but remain relatively high in 2023. For this year, the ECB expects inflation to slow slightly to 9.4% from 13% last year, before weakening more sharply to 4.2% in 2024.

The government deficit of our country is projected to increase in 2023 to 4.8% of GDP (after a deficit of 2.8% in 2022) and to remain at the level of 4.8% next year due to social policies and income policies adopted in 2022.

The EC also forecasts stabilization of unemployment this year at the level of 4.3% and its slight decrease to 4.0% in 2024.

Regarding public debt, the Commission expects it to grow in 2023 to 25% of GDP (compared to 22.9% in 2022), and to 28.1% in 2024.

Spring macroeconomic forecasts of the European Commission for Bulgaria

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