Day 405 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Drone Attacks over Odesa, Russians fear Counteroffensive in the South

World » UKRAINE | April 4, 2023, Tuesday // 11:07
Bulgaria: Day 405 of the Invasion of Ukraine: Drone Attacks over Odesa, Russians fear Counteroffensive in the South @novinite.com

Day 405 of the invasion of Ukraine. Summary of key events in the last 24 hours:

  • Stoltenberg: Putin triggered historic NATO expansion with the war in Ukraine
  • London: Russia is trying to replace "Wagner" with other private armies in Ukraine
  • Drone attack over Odesa
  • The fighting in Bakhmut continues
  • ISW: Panic in Crimea, trenches are being dug everywhere before the VSU counteroffensive
  • US: 155 mm shells will benefit the Ukrainian people
  • Brussels is urging China to use its influence in Russia to curb the war in Ukraine
  • Lithuania bans Russians from buying real estate


Stoltenberg: Putin triggered historic NATO expansion with the war in Ukraine

Finland's accession to NATO later on Tuesday will be a historic event and a direct result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, adding that the alliance would ensure that Sweden also becomes a full member.

"(Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin's stated goal of invading Ukraine was to get less NATO," he told reporters ahead of a meeting of the alliance's foreign ministers.

"He gets the exact opposite... Finland today, and soon Sweden will become a full member of the alliance," added Stoltenberg.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin said on Tuesday it would be forced to take "countermeasures" to ensure Russia's security in response to Finland joining NATO.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Helsinki's move to join the bloc an "encroachment" on Russia's security and said NATO's structure was hostile to Russia.

The Turkish parliament approved a bill last week allowing Finland to join NATO. It was the last vote the Scandinavian country needed for formal membership, after Hungary's parliament earlier voted to ratify Finland.

For now, Sweden, which applied for membership along with Finland in May, remains outside the alliance as Turkey and Hungary postponed its acceptance.

Ankara is unhappy that Sweden is not handing over fugitives it says are linked to terrorist activities. A Hungarian government spokesman said last week that Sweden's bid was on hold because of Stockholm's criticism of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's policies.

Sweden's foreign minister said Thursday he was no longer sure his country would be able to join NATO by July.

London: Russia is trying to replace "Wagner" with other private armies in Ukraine

Russia is likely trying to finance and develop alternative private military companies (PMCs) to replace Wagner in its major role in the military operations in Ukraine.

That's according to a British military intelligence briefing today, a day after Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin announced the "legal" takeover of Bakhmut and control of its center. Kyiv and Washington dispute this interpretation. The city "is ours," Prigozhin said, although according to the Institute for the Study of War, regular Russian troops are also on the ground.

The brief, posted on Twitter, places these Russian plans in the context of the highly visible feud between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Kremlin needs to replace Wagner with another organization that it can control more easily. The problem is that there is currently no organization that approaches the numbers or strength of this PMC.

According to London, Russia probably sees a benefit in Ukraine for PMCs to continue operating, as they face fewer constraints such as limited pay and the low effectiveness of the regular army.

"The Russian leadership probably believes that heavy losses among the PMC will be better tolerated by Russian society than losses among the regular army," the summary concluded.

Drone attack over Odesa

Attack with Russian attack drones over Odesa and the region. The information is from the local authority. Material damage was caused, but no casualties were reported.

The head of the district's military administration urged the city's residents not to ignore air raid alerts and stay in bomb shelters, warning that more attacks were possible.

According to the latest information, the Ukrainian Air Force shot down 14 attacking drones.

The news agency Novosti reports successful Russian attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region. And in an interview with the publication "Arguments and Facts", Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia considers the European Union to be a "hostile union".

The fighting in Bakhmut continues

Fighting continues in Bakhmut, Russian forces are "very far" from taking the city, a Ukrainian military official said, after the head of the Wagner private military group said the Russian flag was already flying over the local administration.

Ukrainian Eastern Command spokesman Serhii Cherevaty told Reuters that fighting in the area around the local administration building in Bakhmut was continuing, adding: "They have hung their 'rag' on who knows what over there and are lying that they have captured the city. OK, let them think so".

Earlier, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video:

"Legally speaking, we captured Bakhmut. The enemy remained in the western districts".

The BBC notes that it is difficult to judge the objectivity of one side or the other, as there is no access for foreign journalists to the city, where heavy fighting has been going on for months with many casualties on both sides, and almost all of its eastern part is in ruins.

According to data from the Ukrainian side, six civilians were killed and eight were wounded in Russian strikes in Konstantinovka, 20 kilometers from Bakhmut. The shelling continues in the nearby town of Chasov Yar.

An elderly woman shared:

"Chasov Yar is a written off town, just like Bakhmut. Nobody needs us. They don't stop shooting."

The first MiG-29 fighters from Poland have already been sent to the Ukrainian armed forces, an official representative from Warsaw announced. Polish President Andrzej Duda promised last month that even more planes would be repaired and prepared. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will pay an official visit to Poland on April 5. Detailed talks are planned not only in the field of security, but also on economic and political support.

ISW: Panic in Crimea, trenches are being dug everywhere before the VSU counteroffensive

Russians in the temporarily occupied Crimea are worried about the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces. Defense and logistics preparations continue on the captured peninsula.

In their new report, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) draw attention to satellite images from April 1. They clearly show that the Russian army has built defensive lines along land lines and logistics centers, including near Armiansk, along highway E105 south of Chonhar- 34 km northeast of Dzhankoi, along highway E97 near Filatovka - 8 km southeast of Armiansk, near Vorontsovka - 20 km south of Armiansk and along the beaches of Yevpatoria.

Russian occupiers in Crimea are preparing for defense, in particular, the enemy is building fortifications and forcing trenches to be dug between the settlements of Ishun and Voinka.

In addition, the invaders are building a new military unit on the temporarily occupied Ukrainian peninsula. According to the Atesh partisan movement, Russian military construction is in full swing in Yevpatoria.

It is also reported that the Russians in Crimea are recruiting conscripts to sign contracts with the Russian armed forces to participate in the war against Ukraine.

At the same time, ISW confirms that PMC Wagner mercenaries have managed to capture Bakhmut's administrative building and that the Russian military is advancing towards the city center.

Analysts suggest that the mercenaries will now try to consolidate control over the city center and try to advance west through the residential areas of the city towards Khromovo.

In addition, the ISW specifies that the Ukrainian armed forces have confirmed that regular Russian troops, including the airborne troops, entered Bakhmut along with the Wagnerites.

US: 155 mm shells will benefit the Ukrainian people

The provision of projectiles jointly ordered by EU member states will be of great benefit to the Ukrainian people.

This is how US Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith answered a question of Bulgarian media “Club Z”. She gave a telephone briefing for journalists on the eve of the two-day meeting of the foreign ministers of the member countries in Brussels.

ClubZ asked Julianne Smith what message she would send to EU countries that have not yet joined the European Defense Agency's (UAE) project to jointly procure missiles for Ukraine. So far, 23 countries have joined it - 22 EU countries and Norway. Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, Slovenia and Ireland are not yet participating. Bulgarian President Rumen Radev was categorical last week that Bulgaria will not supply shells to Ukraine.

"As far as it depends on NATO, we want to ensure that the Ukrainian armed forces will have what they need to defend their territory. This new initiative within the EU allows European countries to both order and eventually produce 155mm shells. I think this will be of great benefit to the Ukrainian people," says Julianne Smith.

The US supports initiatives that will put more aid in the hands of Ukrainians, she concluded.

Brussels is urging China to use its influence in Russia to curb the war in Ukraine

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged Beijing to play a "constructive" role in bringing peace to Ukraine as she prepares for a joint visit to China with French President Emmanuel Macron.

In an interview with the Financial Times, von der Leyen said the bloc was "concerned about China's friendly stance with Russia" but added that Beijing should use its ties with Moscow to curb the Kremlin's war that has begun a little over a year ago.

"China is in a position to influence Russia in a constructive way, and therefore the authorities in Beijing are responsible. You cannot be in the middle - you cannot be for half of the international order," said the head of the commission.

She stressed that although President Xi Jinping visited Moscow last month, he has not yet made a phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"If there is one country that can make Moscow change its calculations, it is China," an Elysee Palace official said ahead of Macron's three-day state visit to the Asian country.

Macron will be accompanied by Von der Leyen, who warned in a speech last week that how Beijing responds to Vladimir Putin's war will be a "determining factor" for the future of China-EU relations.

The French official quoted by the Financial Times also stressed China's unique capacity to "have an important 'game-changing' effect in terms of military conflict," but added that it could help or hurt depending on the choice of Beijing.

He noted that Emmanuel Macron was convinced it was important for France to re-engage with China and make bilateral relations "more predictable", but also acknowledged the wider geopolitical tensions, which were "very complex and difficult" to fixed.

Paris said Macron will have "about six or seven hours" of meetings with Xi Jinping during the upcoming trip, which will begin on Wednesday in Beijing and end on April 7 in Guangzhou.

During the visit, Marcon will be accompanied by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, as well as business leaders from around 50 companies, including energy giant EDF and water and waste company Veolia. An Airbus representative will also be in the delegation, negotiating a contract for new planes, the Elysee Palace said.

The presence of corporate representatives underscores the continued importance to Europe of its growing trade relationship with China.

The high-profile visit also marks a further willingness by Macron to play a central role in diplomatic efforts related to the war, similar to his efforts in the run-up to the Russian invasion, when he held frequent phone calls with Putin and Zelensky.

China wants to revive discussions about the so-called EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement, a trade deal that was not ratified and has been stalled since 2021.

Von der Leyen, meanwhile, stressed the importance of keeping diplomatic channels open with Beijing, while adding that the war marked a "watershed moment" for the EU as it seeks to protect the international order.

The president of the European Commission wants to "reduce the risk" in relations with Beijing in some areas, instead of accepting the US position of a complete withdrawal from China.

China's ambassador to the EU, Fu Kon, told the Financial Times last week that he was optimistic that von der Leyen's visit would encourage concrete results, including on the stalled investment agreement. He said he sees "strong forces" in favor of ratifying it, but also others working feverishly against the process.

The trip by the two EU leaders contrasts with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's decision to cancel his visit to China in February. His decision follows previous visits by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who traveled to Beijing last November, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who went to China last week.

Lithuania bans Russians from buying real estate

Lithuania's parliament decided on Tuesday to ban Russian citizens from buying real estate in the Baltic country, citing risks to national security, Reuters reported.

The ban, which will be in effect until 2024, will not apply to Russians who are allowed to reside in the country.

Parliament also suspended the issuance of new visas to citizens of Russia and its ally Belarus.

Many of the citizens of those two countries who carry other travel documents, such as previously issued visas, will be subject to "individual enhanced checks" at the border to determine whether they pose a threat to national security.

"The majority of Russian citizens support their country's aggressive military actions and do not take action to stop their country's regime's aggression, so they share the responsibility," Deputy Foreign Minister Jurgita Neliupsiene told parliament in March, when he introduced the bill.


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Tags: Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, Bakhmut

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