Exacta Survey: It is Impossible to Predict who will Win the Elections in Bulgaria
Five political formations are certain to enter the 49th National Assembly. The distance between the two leading coalitions is a fraction significantly smaller than the statistical error in similar studies. This makes it impossible as of March 26 to predict who will be first and who will be second. If there is a small party with a chance to fight for a seat in the new parliament, according to Exacta data, it is the "Left" (Levitsata).
This is indicated by the data from a study by the Exacta Research Group conducted in the period from March 21 to 26, 2023. 1050 adult Bulgarian citizens in 71 settlements of the country were interviewed. A stratified two-stage sample was used with a quota based on basic socio-demographic characteristics. The registration methodology is a direct semi-standardized "face-to-face" interview. The research was carried out with the funds of "Exacta Research Group" as part of the research program of the agency. It was held on the territory of Bulgaria and does not reflect the attitudes of voters from abroad.
Among Bulgarians who are sure that they will vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections, 70% indicate that they choose to vote with a machine, and 30% - with paper ballots.
GERB-SDS and WCC-DB enter the final decisive phase of the campaign with equal positions. The winner will be the one who, in the remaining days until the vote, is able to improve its position among the residents of the capital, as well as to work for higher activity in the cities-district centers. The coalition, which does not give up fighting for the vote of the undecided voters, will be greeted with a victory in the race, the experts conclude.
A week before the vote, 41% of Bulgarians declare their definite intention to vote in the parliamentary elections on April 2. These people estimate the probability of going to the polls as 100%. A certain increase in activity may come from those declaring that they will certainly vote, but specifying at the same time that they have not yet decided who they will vote for. They are 13% of Bulgarians of legal age and could make changes in the arrangement of parties with close results.
With "I do not support anyone" have declared to vote 3.9% of Bulgarians.
As of March 26, sociologists from "Exacta" registered the highest mobilization among the DPS electorate.
In the final phase of the campaign, WCC-DB works not only with the core of its voters, but also seeks support among its potential electorate. GERB-SDS seem to be more likely to work with their hard electorate.
Sociologists report below average willingness to vote among the residents of the capital, but also among the population of regional centers. The efforts of parties and coalitions to increase voter turnout both in the capital and in major cities of the country until April 2 are proving to be very important for the final result of the vote.
The study of "Exacta Research Group" was conducted with its own funds in the period from March 21 to 26, 2023, among 1,050 adult Bulgarian citizens in 71 settlements of the country. A stratified two-stage sample was used with a quota based on basic socio-demographic characteristics. The methodology is a direct semi-standardized "face-to-face" interview. The research was carried out on the territory of Bulgaria and does not reflect the attitudes of voters from abroad.
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