"Gallup" Survey: The 6+2 Formula for the Bulgarian Parliament is Preserved Days before the Vote
A low degree of predictability regarding Sunday's election shows the snapshot - a few days before the vote. It is known that hundreds of thousands of voters have yet to decide in the coming days.
Around or under 2.6 million people are expected to participate in the election (about 39% of the official list, with an almost negligible proportion of them expected to choose "I do not support anyone"), which is a relatively low turnout and this further reduces predictability. Given the situation in the country and around the world, serious fluctuations are possible, therefore, of course, the data is not a direct forecast of the election result.
The data are from a nationally representative survey by "Gallup International Balkan", conducted and commissioned for the Bulgarian National Radio, carried out between September 20 and 27 among 1,009 adult Bulgarians with tablets through a direct face-to-face interview.
If the elections were held in the last ten days of September, GERB-SDS would receive 25.8% of the potential votes for parties, coalitions or independent candidates, "We Continue the Change" - 16.6%, and DPS and "Vazrazhdane" are fighting at the end of September for the third place, respectively with 13.2% and 12.8%. It is not excluded that they will end up in a "package" with other participants in the ranking - due to fluctuations in the activity and mobilization of the various electorates. BSP has 9.2% of the potential vote. "Democratic Bulgaria" – with 7.8%.
Almost above the barrier are "There Is Such a People", with 4.2%, and "Bulgarian Rise" are on the very edge with 4%, and predictions are even more difficult. Thus, the 6+2 formula noted by "Gallup International Bolkan" a few weeks ago is confirmed: six sure formations and two for which there is no such certainty.
"Stand Up, Bulgaria" and VMRO (IMRO) are below the barrier, respectively with results of 1.9% and 1.2%. It is not excluded that other formations will also score a tangible result under the barrier.
Surveys and predictions on the elections so far:
"Alpha Research" Survey: Over 8% Difference between the Two Leading Parties before the Elections
"Trend" Survey: What are the Attitudes of Bulgarians Days before the Elections
“MarketLinks” Survey: 6 Parties in the New Bulgarian Parliament after October’s Elections
"Mediana" Survey: GERB leads with nearly 10% over “We Continue the Change” in Early Election Survey
“Gallup” Survey: GERB's Lead over “We Continue the Change” is Growing
"MarketLinks" Survey: 7 Formations in the New Bulgarian Parliament, GERB First Political Force
"Trend" Survey: GERB wins the elections in Bulgaria with 5% lead
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