Clear mobilization of a radical vote is reported in the latest nationally representative survey by the Alpha Research polling agency. According to it, the nationalist pro-Russian “Vazrazhdane” (Revival/Възраждане) party, currently the smallest parliamentary group in the National Assembly, has doubled its support since November 2021 and ranks fourth in voter preferences, albeit not in a real election situation, with almost equal votes with the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP).

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The survey was conducted in the period 8 - 14 April 2022 among 1,037 adult citizens across the country through a direct standardized interview with tablets. A two-stage stratified by region and type of settlement sample with quota by sex, age, education was used. It is financed with own funds, the agency clarifies.

The political turbulence in the last two months is causing accelerated dynamics in the electoral attitudes of Bulgarians, sociologists comment. According to them, there is a general tendency towards fluctuations in support for the ruling parties of varying intensity, consolidation among GERB supporters and mobilization of a radical vote.

Clarifying that this is not a real electoral situation, Alpha Research measures the following preferences:

Electoral attitudes for parliamentary elections
Among those who said they would vote

From top to bottom: GERB 21,7%; We Continue the Change 18,4%; Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 10,2%; Vazrazhdane 9,4%; Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) 7,6%; Democratic Bulgaria 6,7%; There Is Such a People 4,5%; Others 8,9; I have not decided 12,6

With 21.7% of those who decided to vote, GERB is about 3 points ahead of “We Continue the Change”, after in the agency's survey in February it was in second place. According to sociologists, the main factor for this shift is the internal party consolidation.

 continue the change" marks an outflow of 6 points in two months. "There Is Such a People" is the other coalition partner that suffers significant electoral negatives - support for it decreased by 2.1 points compared to February. At the moment, the support for Slavi Trifonov's party, which won the extraordinary vote last July, is 4.5% of those ready to run in the elections, i.e. slightly above the barrier to enter the National Assembly.

Against the background of the negative trend towards the ruling coalition, the Socialists keep their supporters from the last parliamentary elections - 10.2% support.

The mobilization of a radical vote gave a boost to the nationalists of “Vazrazhdane”, which recorded the strongest growth during the period, reaching 9.4% against 5.2% in February. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms receives its usual non-electoral period support of 7.6%.

Less affected by the negative tendencies towards the government are "Democratic Bulgaria", according to the survey data. They stabilized their support at 6.7% (from 6.4% in February).

Two other numbers are a significant feature and a sign of potential dynamics in the overall electoral picture - 8.9%, who say they would vote for another party outside these political forces, and another 12.6% willing to vote but undecided which party to support. Thus, although no radically different management alternative is emerging at the moment, a hypothetical future vote could produce a very different balance of power from the current one, Alpha Research commented.

Trust in party leaders

Erosion in the trust in the leader of "We Continue the Change" and Prime Minister of the country Kiril Petkov and an upward trend in the leader of "Vazrazhdane" Kostadin Kostadinov reported the study.

Petkov's personal rating dropped from 39% in February to 22.5% in early April. Despite this negative trend, however, he remains the most approved of party leaders. A slight increase is observed in the chairmen of GERB - Boyko Borissov, and of BSP - Kornelia Ninova.

Trust in party leaders

Grey: February 2022; Red: April 2022
From left to right: Kiril Petkov, Boyko Borissov, Kornelia Ninova, Kostadin Kostadinov, Hristo Ivanov, Slavi Trifonov, Mustafa Karadayi, Vladislav Panev, Atanas Atanasov

Sources: Alpha Research, Dnevnik

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