"Alpha Research": GERB Wins the Elections, "We Continue the Change" – 3rd, 6 Parties in the NA
In the November 14 elections, the most likely scenario is a new six-party parliament, in which a majority cannot be achieved without the votes of three to four parties. GERB starts in the first place with 23.1% of the votes of those who firmly decided to vote in the parliamentary elections and continues to be at a stable distance from the others. This is shown by the data from a sociological survey conducted by the Alpha Research Agency.
52.7% of the adult Bulgarian citizens plan to vote in the upcoming presidential elections, and 47.6% - in the early parliamentary elections. The expectations that elections 2 in 1 lead to an increase in the turnout are justified, and the presidential vote traditionally arouses more interest, the agency notes.
23.1% of those who decided to go to the polls would vote for Boyko Borissov's party.
The battle for second place between BSP (16.8%) and "We Continue the Change" of Kiril Petkov and Asen Vassilev (15.9%) is disputed.
The new project started with a flying start, but at the moment it shows a high plateau rather than exponential growth. The high mobilization of its voters plays in favor of BSP, but according to Alpha Research, the Covid crisis and the machine vote could reduce this result.
Regarding "We Continue the Change", the decision of the Constitutional Court on the dual citizenship of Kiril Petkov can also affect the motivation of voters.
The serious and continuing erosion of “There Is Such a People” brought them from the first to the fourth or fifth political force.
At the start of the campaign "Democratic Bulgaria" (10.9%) has a symbolic lead over the party of Slavi Trifonov (10.4%). Both formations are suffering severely from an outflow of voters to the new project of the former caretaker ministers.
The collapse of the TISP is particularly strong, falling by another 5 percentage points in just one month, with support for the party halving from the July elections. Democratic Bulgaria also lost between one-sixth and one-fifth of its voters attracted by the new project.
However, the nomination of its own presidential candidate, as well as its stronger political identity, reduce the damage from this process, according to Alpha Research.
With 9.3% of those sure to vote on November 14th, DPS is the sixth party to enter the 47th National Assembly. Due to the late nomination of its leader, Mustafa Karadayi, as presidential candidate, the current study does not take into account the mobilizing effect of this move on the parliamentary vote. What potential he can reach will be another of the intrigues of this election.
There is no serious statistical probability that any other party will jump the 4% barrier. If this trend continues in the course of the campaign, it would mean a certain redistribution of electoral attitudes, but not a radical change in the balance of power.
Until recently, the seemingly foretold presidential battle also emerged as more complicated and open-ended.
As the survey was conducted in the field between October 4 and 10, immediately after the announcement of the candidacies of Prof. Anastas Gerdjikov and Lozan Panov and before the nomination of Mustafa Karadayi, it reflects the first public reactions before the applicants were more widely popularized and recognized by voters.
Current President Rumen Radev is running with 42.6% of the vote. The strongest support is received from the supporters of BSP (over 90% of them) and "Stand up. BG! ”(80%).
Just over two-thirds of TISP and “We Continue the Change” supporters would also vote for him. After the rise of Lozan Panov, a quarter of the DB's supporters expressed support for Radev.
In second place is Prof. Anastas Gerdjikov with 28.1%. Over 80 percent of the GERB electorate declares their support for him. In addition to their vote, he managed to attract a more diverse periphery of about 7 percent, which exceeds the vote for GERB.
About 15% of the supporters of "We Continue the change", 12% of those of "Democratic Bulgaria", about 30% of supporters of IMRO and 10% - of other political forces would vote for him.
His positions among graduates and people from larger cities, where he has the highest chances to increase his support, are serious.
Lozan Panov collected initial support of 8.2%. Although it has a unifying effect on "Democratic Bulgaria", due to the sympathies of about a quarter of its supporters to Rumen Radev, it currently receives a lower than its parliamentary result.
It is possible that his candidacy will play a bigger role in the parliamentary elections than for president, but he has the potential to increase his result, according to Alpha Research.
The other known contenders receive between 1 and 3 percent support. 13% said in the survey that they would vote for "another candidate", and it can be assumed that about two thirds of them would support a DPS candidate.
The present study was conducted in the period 4 - 10 October 2021 from "Alpha Research", is published on the website of the agency and is realized with own funds.
The survey was conducted among 1123 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota on the main socio-demographic characteristics was used.
The information was gathered through a direct standardized interview with tablets in the homes of the respondents.
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