"Already in early March, it was clear that we were heading for a peak in morbidity and we envisaged three possible scenarios for the development of the pandemic. One of them to date is true. Unfortunately, this is the pessimistic scenario in which we see the increase in the basic reproductive number (the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection),"commented to BNR Prof. Marusia Bozhkova, Lecturer in Statistics and Probabilities at the Faculty of Mathematics of St. Kliment Ohridski University.

The peak will be around April 25, Prof. Bozhkova said, specifying that the prognosis is based on the mathematical model with which she works. It is estimated at about 200 deaths from Covid-19 per day.

In her words, the population in which the epidemic is spreading is much more saturated, and the latent morbidity that explains things gives it a boost, as the effect of all lockdowns is reported belatedly.

She defined decisions to loosen the measures as political and gave as an example Greece, where morbidity is growing and restrictions are eased.

The end of the third wave is difficult to predict, she stressed, adding that the effect of vaccination should also become visible:

"About 120,000 people a month need to get vaccinated if we want to overcome the epidemic by the end of 2021," added Prof. Bozhkova.

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