Bulgaria: Three Possible Election Results According to the Turnout
There are three possible election results depending on the turnout in election day according to Alpha Research Agency.
The most likely scenario at the moment is after the upcoming elections on April 4 to have a fragmented parliament with 5 to 7 parties. This was announced to the Bulgarian National Radio by the sociologist Boryana Dimitrova from the Alpha Research Agency.
There are two more options, the determining and unpredictable factor being the turnout.
"COVID-19 can affect turnout. In a pandemic situation, no one can say with certainty how many people will go to the polls. The whole atmosphere of uncertainty is likely to lead to lower turnout - economic concerns, incl. "psychological mistrust, fears, the suggestion of pre-determined elections, which will not lead to a final solution to the crisis, but there will be further elections," Dimitrova explained.
She commented that currently most polls show a fragmented parliament with 5 to 7 parties and a leadership battle between GERB and BSP. This is given that about 3 million voters go to the polls, and the chance of this happening is set at 60%.
The second option is for a sharp decline in voter turnout as a result of COVID-19 and the whole galaxy of factors to which it is associated. In that case, the turnout will be 2 million - 2.4 million voters, and the probability of this is 25%, Dimitrova explained.
This would lead to bonuses for the three parties with the largest hard electorate - GERB, BSP and DPS.
"In such a scenario, some of the smaller parties may fall out of parliament and see one with few parties, quite different in nature and with serious difficulties in forming a government.
No party can be strong enough to form a government, but also weak enough to be eliminated.
The big question is how to form a government in such a situation, "Dimitrova said. The last possible scenario, which is the least likely (about 15%) is for an increase in the protest vote, respectively the protest parties.
Dimitrova described as such "Democratic Bulgaria", "Stand up! Get out" and "There are such people". In such a scenario, the active participation of young people is expected.
"If the young people who have returned in Bulgaria after COVID, according to our estimates, about 130,000 people, are actively involved in the elections, there will be a very changed picture," said the sociologist.
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