IEA Expects Lower Petrol Consumption Till end-2020 And in 2021

Business | December 15, 2020, Tuesday // 14:07
Bulgaria: IEA Expects Lower Petrol Consumption Till end-2020 And in 2021 bing.com

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil demand forecasts by the end of the current year and 2021 as a result of lower air fuel consumption due to the lower number of air passengers as a result of the second wave of coronavirus pandemic.

The Paris-based international energy organization also noted that it will be months before coronavirus vaccinations begin to stimulate global oil demand, and the recovery in some of the world's rich economies "will reverse" this quarter because of new anti-epidemic restrictive measures.

"The understandable euphoria around the start of vaccination programs partly explains higher oil prices, but it will be several months before we reach a critical mass of vaccinated, economically active people and thus see a positive impact on oil demand," the IEA said in its regular monthly report.

"In the meantime, the end-of-year holiday season will soon come with the risk of a new increase in Covid-19 cases and the possibility of even more restrictive measures," the IEA warned.

The Paris-based international energy organization further lowered the expected decline in oil demand for 2020 by a further 50,000 barrels per day to a total of 8.8 million daily consumption of around 91.3 million barrels.

At the same time, global oil supplies have increased by 1.5 million barrels per day in November to reach 92.7 million barrels per day, mainly due to the recovery in U.S. production following its hurricane-related shutdown and increased production in Libya.

The IEA also lowered its oil demand forecasts for 2021 by 170,000 barrels per day, to a total of 96,9 million barrels per day, citing the scarce use of aircraft fuel and kerosene, as fewer people use air transport.

According to the international organization, short demand for aircraft fuel and kerosene next year will account for 80% of the shortfall in oil consumption of a total of 3.1 million barrels per day relative to total demand in 2019 (before the coronavirus pandemic), which means that the world in 2021 will recover only two-thirds of the demand lost this year.

However, the IEA still expects that the oil surplus due to the pandemic will clear out by the end of next year, when the global economy should recover and OPEC+ countries should maintain the policy of limiting oil supplies.

The IEA's downgraded forecast comes just a day after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its estimates for oil consumption in the first quarter of next year from 94.95 million to 93.97 million barrels per day, as for the whole of 2021 lowered the prognosis by 360,000 barrels per day. However, oil consumption next year is expected to increase by nearly 7% or by 6.25 million barrels per day as compared to 2020.

Despite the IE's lower forecasts, oil futures pared today's initial decline and showed slight growth in midday European trade.

Brent crude oil futures in January rose by 0.2 percent to .40 a barrel, bouncing back from a morning low of about .78 per barrel, while benchmark U.S. crude futures WTI rose by 0.28 percent to .15 per barrel from a morning low of about .54.

Last Thursday (December 10th), both types of oil futures rose to 9-month highs (the highest levels since early March) to .00 and .60 per barrel, respectively, given investor optimism about coronavirus vaccines and their delivery and application in some parts of the world (USA, UK and Canada).

This rise in oil prices comes despite increasingly strict lockdowns in a number of European countries ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays aimed at slowing the spread of covid-19 and despite lowered forecasts from the IEA and OPEC for oil consumption next year.

 

We need your support so Novinite.com can keep delivering news and information about Bulgaria! Thank you!

Business » Be a reporter: Write and send your article

Advertisement
Advertisement
Bulgaria news Novinite.com (Sofia News Agency - www.sofianewsagency.com) is unique with being a real time news provider in English that informs its readers about the latest Bulgarian news. The editorial staff also publishes a daily online newspaper "Sofia Morning News." Novinite.com (Sofia News Agency - www.sofianewsagency.com) and Sofia Morning News publish the latest economic, political and cultural news that take place in Bulgaria. Foreign media analysis on Bulgaria and World News in Brief are also part of the web site and the online newspaper. News Bulgaria