Mathematician Petar Velkov: We Do Not Know the Real Number of Infected in Bulgaria, Measures Should Be More Stringent
As of yet, the epidemic’s peak is not reached in Bulgaria and the number of infected will be growing from now on. Within the coming ten days it is expected that people who need urgent medical aid will increase, as within two weeks a spike in mortality rate is forecast, mathematician Petar Velkov said for the morning program of the Bulgarian National Television.
He is sure that at least before the end of November the number of infected will grow depending on the imposed anti-epidemic measures. In the opinion of all leading epidemiologists and medical professionals working on the front line, the measures should be more stringent, Velkov underlined. There are numerous examples across Europe (and not only) which prove that the more we delay it, the more time we will need to see the effect of these measures or even a lockdown, the mathematician commented. In his words, COVID-19 cases will be on the rise even if the current measures are tightened now.
If we impose more stringent measures in November we will spend the December holidays with our families in a more relaxed atmosphere and will be able to start the new year safely which is good for the economy
Now we do not control the epidemic and count only on luck and people’s conscientiousness. Currently we have no accurate data about the real situation which is very worrisome. It is becoming increasingly difficult to create a mathematical model because we do not know the real number of the infected in Bulgaria and it is hard to make calculations. In terms of mathematics, the data on hospitalized patients are not real either as a significant percentage of people who need hospital treatment to not have access to it.
Respectively, it exceeds the data on mortality rate as well. According to various evidence, the death rate among COVID-19 patients may be up to 50% higher. Very soon Bulgaria will top all rankings in Europe, the situation is completely out of control, Velkov added.
In-class learning is a problem, schools are the hotbed of infection because children are virus carriers even if for most of them the illness is asymptomatic, Velkov, who is a math teacher explained.
Now the situation is dramatic, we have a serious shortage of teachers and mortality rate among them is exceptionally high – 1,5%. If we do not change the course of events very soon there will be no teachers for our children, was the mathematician’s dismal prognosis.
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