Leaked Cross-Government Study Shows No-Deal Brexit Worst Case Scenario
If Britain leaves the EU without an agreement, it will suffer from a shortage of fuels, food and medicines, the Sunday Times reported, citing Operation Yellowhammer, the cross-government study of the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
The documents say Brexit without a deal means the risk of a crisis in the operation of the ports, a firm border with Ireland, an increase in social costs, the newspaper said.
The unprecedented leakage of documents produced by the British government reveals specific gaps in contingency planning that would occur in the worst-case scenario.
For an example, 85% of freighters crossing the English Channel "may be unprepared" for crossing French customs. This can lead to interruptions in the operation of ports. They are likely to last for up to three months - until the traffic flow is regulated.
The British government also believes that in the absence of an agreement with the European Union, the planned measures to avoid border crossings between Ireland and Northern Ireland will prove impossible to implement - this is likely to lead to a firm border.
According to BBC, quoting the dossier leaving the EU without a deal could lead to:
- Fresh food becoming less available and prices rising
- A hard Irish border after plans to avoid checks fail, sparking protests
- Fuel becoming less available and 2,000 jobs being lost if the government sets petrol import tariffs to 0%, potentially causing two oil refineries to close
- UK patients having to wait longer for medicines, including insulin and flu vaccines
- A rise in public disorder and community tensions resulting from a shortage of food and drugs
- Passengers being delayed at EU airports, Eurotunnel and Dover
- Freight disruption at ports lasting up to three months, caused by customs checks, before traffic flow improves to 50-70% of the current rate
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