Theday.com
By Barry Renfrew

London - The United States and Britain are locked in a ferocious diplomatic battle with France for the support of six nations that could hold the key to whether or not the U.N. Security Council backs a war on Iraq.

Promises of rich rewards and hints of bruising punishment are flying as diplomats seek the support of Angola, Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Mexico and Pakistan over a second United Nations resolution that would authorize military action against Saddam Hussein.

The United States and Britain, which want U.N. backing for military action, must get nine of the council's 15 votes to get it passed. So far, they can depend only on Spain and Bulgaria and need five of the six swing votes, diplomats say. France, Russia and China oppose military action now, while Germany and Syria, the other members, say they won't authorize war.

France, which wants to give U.N. weapons inspectors more time and is leading opposition to early military action, is trying to ensure the Americans and British don't get nine votes.

France, Russia and China, as permanent council members, could veto the proposed resolution, but are reluctant to risk a diplomatic rupture with Washington.

With both sides expressing confidence, U.S., British and French leaders and diplomats have been flying around the world and working the phones in search of support. President Bush has made regular calls to try to line up backers.

The United States, with its power, wealth and influence in such bodies as the International Monetary Fund, can apply the greatest pressure, but Paris is also a major aid donor, especially in Africa, where it has substantial security and political ties.

In a sign Friday of unexpected success for the United States, a senior Pakistani government source told The Associated Press that Pakistan was leaning toward the United States. However, Pakistan was thought to be reluctant to back a war against another Muslim state.

Mexico and Angola, mindful of their close trade ties with the United States, are also leaning toward backing the U.S.-British position, diplomats say. Shattered by civil war, Angola relies on income from the sale of oil and desperately needs U.S. aid, while Mexico does not want to anger its powerful neighbor.

France is leaning on Cameroon and Guinea to vote no or abstain. Both nations are poor and don't want to offend Washington or Paris.

For Guinea, which assumes the Security Council presidency today, the dilemma is acute, since Washington is its main aid donor and Paris its second-largest donor. Washington now is offering military training and Britain is offering $6.2 million in aid.

Guinean Foreign Minister Francois Fall said Friday that financial incentives would not sway his country's vote. But Fall also made clear that increased financial aid would be welcome.

"We have always asked the international community for support, but we haven't always benefited from that support," he told Associated Press Television News in Paris.

Chile, a key U.S. trading partner, is under intense pressure from Washington. U.S. diplomats are hinting at greater trade if Chile backs the United States. But public opinion in Chile, Mexico and Pakistan vehemently opposes war.
While Russia, China and Germany oppose war, they don't have close ties with most of the six nations and Moscow and Beijing have little to offer in the way of aid or other rewards.

If the United States and Britain get the nine votes, the other three permanent members of the council will have to decide whether to use their vetoes. France has not said if it will use its veto.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said Friday that Moscow could use its veto to block military action. But most analysts don't think Russia wants to risk a break with the United States because of its need for American economic and political backing.