Bulgaria is a Neighbor of "Three of the Most Miserable Economies" in the World

World | April 25, 2019, Thursday // 12:15
Bulgaria: Bulgaria is a Neighbor of "Three of the Most Miserable Economies" in the World

Venezuela continues this year to head the Bloomberg rating for "the most miserable economies in the world," but three of the top ten are neighbors of Bulgaria.

Turkey ranks fourth, Greece - fifth, and Serbia is the tenth.

Many will be surprised that in the top 10 is Spain (under No. 8), but Bloomberg explains that they are making their calculations for the special index based on inflation and unemployment data, comparing median estimates in the forecasts (as of April 11) of economists at interest rates for 2019 with those for the past as well as statistics from national governments and the International Monetary Fund.

For the fifth consecutive year, the agency makes this ranking, covering 62 countries this time. The authors warn that even for the better-performing parties this time there is a treacherous combination of "silent inflation and low unemployment that complicate the assessment of the economic situation and finding an appropriate response to the problems." The idea has been that, at low inflation and unemployment, people should be happy with their economy, but sometimes this may be misleading, they add. Sustainably low prices may be a sign of weak demand, and behind too low unemployment it is impossible for many workers to shift to better and more profitable work.

Venezuela stands out above all with an economic catastrophe that, according to the International Finance Institute (IIF) estimates, has exceeded the collapse of the former USSR in the early 1990s and the collapse of Zimbabwe in 1998. If in 1992 - 1999 the Ukrainian economy collapsed by more than 50%, in the last 5 years Venezuela has shrunk by over 60%.

Since 2016, authorities in Caracas have not published official estimates of the country's GDP, and in principle Nicholas Maduro's arrival in power in 2013 is very rarely given macroeconomic information. Bloomberg uses a substitute for measuring inflation - they record the price of coffee cups in a cafeteria in the capital, Caracas. Thus, for the past one year, as of April 22, the depreciation of the national currency is over 184 000 percent (ie coffee rose from 1.9 to 3500 bolivarians).

Last year, Venezuela's "Unhappiness Index" was over 900,000 units. The projections for 2019 are that it will exceed 8 million units.

At the other end of this ranking is Thailand, although economists have doubts about the military's approach to reducing unemployment. Switzerland and Singapore apply more standard methods and remain in the top three. The United States climbed 6 positions to 13th place, while the UK improved its position with 4 seats to 16th position. Russia is worsening its position with 17 seats to the 17th "most unhappy economy" because of expectations of higher inflation and stagnation in the labor market.

For the year 2019, the rating will likely be shifted, at least due to changes in inflation rates. if central bankers raised interest rates last year, the economic cycle has now entered a phase of slowing down, stagnation and a slight recession in individual locations, prompting a further fall in interest rates. Bloomberg survey among economists and analysts shows 62 countries expect lower inflation compared to 2018, and the majority predict a decline in unemployment.

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