By 2040, Bulgaria’s Population Forecast to Decrease by About 20%
The forecast for the demographic development of Bulgaria in 2015-2040 indicates similar to the current trends over the next few decades, the government press office said.
The population is expected to significantly decrease in this period, by 20-25%. Despite the forecast reduction in mortality, which affects differently men and women, the population structure by gender will remain stable. The share of young people under 20 will be maintained, while that of elderly people over 65 will increase significantly. This is the reason for the forecast decrease in the number and share of the working-age population. By regions, the decrease in the population will affect almost all areas, except the capital city, and this process is expected to continue throughout the period.
At a pan-European level, Bulgaria is not the only country with a predicted declining population, the study said. This is expected to happen in 11 other EU countries - Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Greece, Croatia, Portugal, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Italy and Slovakia. Slovenia and the Czech Republic, where the number of the population is expected to remain unchanged by 2040, are likely to join them. This leads to the conclusion that in almost half of the EU countries a population decrease is expected.
The forecast was prepared by the Institute for Population and Human Studies to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences based on official forecast data of Eurostat, the National Statistical Institute, the UN and the World Bank.
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