Ernst & Young Foresees Modest Growth of Bulgarian Economy in 2015-2016
In its latest report, which was presented on Thursday, Ernst & Young foresees a modest growth of the Bulgarian economy for this and next year.
According to the analysts, the good results from the second quarter will not be sustained due to the shrinking internal consumption, daily Dnevnik reports.
In the second quarter, the final consumption in Bulgaria recorded a decrease of 0.6 % compared to the previous quarter, while investments increased by only 0.4 %.
The good results of the country's GDP in the first quarter were due to exports, which continued to grow even after the peak of 8.3 % in the last quarter of 2014.
However the 1.2 % increase of exports in the first quarter exceeded the growth of exports by only 0.1 % .
Thus, Ernst & Young lowered its forecast for the GDP growth in 2015 from the initially foreseen 2.1 % to 1.9 %.
Its forecast for 2016 foresees a GDP growth of 2.6 % and an increase of the demand on the internal market, which would compensate for the weaker contribution of the net export.
Analysts noted that companies were regaining their confidence to make new investments and create new jobs.
The recovery of the economy was notable although it was not at the same pace as in the years before the crisis.
Ernst & Young foresees an average yearly growth of 3.4 % for 2017-2019, which will be determined by factors such as more stable rise of exports, increased demand on the internal market and unfavourable demographic trends.
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