Jay Ogilvy: “No Winner-Take-All Solution" Likely to Succeed in Ukraine

Novinite Insider » OPINIONS | April 1, 2015, Wednesday // 21:35| Views: | Comments: 7
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Bulgaria: Jay Ogilvy: “No Winner-Take-All Solution" Likely to Succeed in Ukraine An Ukrainian serviceman of the `Donbass battalion` fires a rocket propelled grenade launcher during a training session at a shooting range near of the eastern city of Mariupol, Ukraine, 01 April 2015. EPA/BGNES

The “obsessive focus” of US media on the personality of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the context of the conflict in Ukraine “obscures much more important geopolitical realities”, Jay Ogilvy writes in an analysis posted on the website of Stratfor, the geopolitical intelligence firm. 

Ukraine is different from most of its neighbors in Eastern Europe, the author writes, explaining why in his opinion ”the dominant US narrative” that Ukraine is just one more Eastern European countries “trying to to pry itself out from under seven decades of Soviet oppression” is misleading.

While Poland, Latvia and Romania “are each largely united by a shared language and culture” and “further fused through suffering from prior Russian incursions”, Ukraine “is both deeply divided, culturally and politically, and its eastern half is strongly bound to Russia.”

Ukraine’s presidential elections of 2004, 2010 and 2014 invariably showed a deep political divide along language lines, Ogilvy says, warning against simplistic interpretation of the reasons for the current conflict in Ukraine

“No winner-take-all solution to its [Ukraine’s] problems is likely to succeed,” the author opines.

You can read the full article “Backtracking From the Brink in Ukrainehere:


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Tags: Putin, Jay Ogilvy, Russia, Ukraine, Stratfor
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» To the forumComments (7)
VillaGuy - 3 Apr 2015 // 19:06:33

Very interesting GrueFski, thanks for sharing your knowledge

GrueFski - 3 Apr 2015 // 18:55:12

Well Ukrainian and Belarusian are both dialects of the same language and Belarusian and Russian are both dialects of the same language, and, since "Belarusian" is translated as "White Russian" => both Ukrainian and Russian are dialects of the same language (whether Russian is a Ukrainian dialect or Ukrainian is a Russian dialect has no relevance). Especially since Rusyn language is considered by most Ukrainian historians to be a collection of Ukrainian dialects. Now, Rusyns are the real Ukrainians, the ones having kept the "Rus-" endonym and endo-glottonym (=endo-glossonym), dating back to the times of Kievan Rus'. "Ukrainian" simply means "person from the outskirts [of the Russian ethnic territory]", a peripheral Russian. Kievan Rus' was not called "Kievan Ukraine". If it was no Russian statehood (as some "historians" claim), it surely wasn't a Ukrainian one, it was a Rusyn statehood.
It is worth noting that in German, in the past, Ukraine used to be called Ruthenien ("Rusyn country"), whereas Belarus used to be called Weissruthenien (White Ruthenia, White Ukraine), it wasn't called Weissrussland (White Russia), which is a more recent name (Russland = Russia).

GrueFski - 3 Apr 2015 // 01:54:10

He means that there are no other languages (i.e. ethnic/national minorities) in those 3 countries whereas in Ukraine there are 2 (main) languages: Ukrainian and Russian (which btw don't always coincide with the ethnic self-identification, with the national/ethnic conscience of the native speakers of those 2 languages).
He is half-right: there are other languages in Poland, Latvia and Romania too but the immense majority of those countries' inhabitants are native Polish-, Latvian- and Romanian-speakers. Actually in Romania that majority is not at all that immense, not to mention Latvia where Russian-speakers (here native language almost always coincides with ethnicity) constitute almost 30% of the population (and those are the official figures). He must have meant Lithuanians.

WTF - 2 Apr 2015 // 18:02:34

Jay Ogilvy joined Stratfor's editorial board in January 2015. In 1979, he left a post as a professor of philosophy at Yale to join SRI, the former Stanford Research Institute, as director of research. Dr. Ogilvy co-founded the Global Business Network of scenario planners in 1987. He is the former dean and chief academic officer of San Francisco’s Presidio Graduate School. Dr. Ogilvy has published nine books, including Many Dimensional Man, Creating Better Futures and Living Without a Goal.

This can't be the guy that lumped together the Poles, Romanians and Latvians as “united by a shared language and culture”???

VillaGuy - 2 Apr 2015 // 14:54:05

I found that sentence hard to swallow too Stop the Propaganda, I thought maybe they meant they shared the same goals, but I couldn't justify the statement however I tried to excuse it.

Stop the propaganda - 2 Apr 2015 // 14:50:32

While Poland, Latvia and Romania “are each largely united by a shared language and culture”

Unbelievable stupidity...even the people with simple knowledge about the region know that those three languages and cultures are fundamentally different from each other.

Gordon Mitchell - 2 Apr 2015 // 14:12:45

Grown up people should make grown up decisions and stop all talk of war. What is the matter with them? War and destruction might be big business, but ordinary people are paying with their lives! Suffering sells weapons, who are the winners? The manufacturers...

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