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A total of 5 parties and coalitions are tipped to make it into Bulgaria's National Assembly after the October 5 early elections, data by polling agency Alpha Research [BG] shows.
Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), Bulgaria without Censorship and the Reformist Bloc are most likely to enter Parliament, the survey shows.
The agency says two more (Alternative for Bulgarian Revival, or ABV, and the Patriotic Front) are just at the voter threshold of 4%, and for both the vote will be a close call.
Far-right Ataka, which was part of the former Parliament, will have a projected 2.9% share and will not send lawmakers.
A potential distribution of seats would give conservative GERB 105 to 110 MPs, socialist BSP would have 63-68, and liberal DPS would stand at 35-38.
Right-wing RB would send 38 lawmakers to Parliament, while Bulgaria without Censorship would count on 13.
Alpha Research therefore believes a fragile majority could be formed between GERB and the RB.
Voter predisposition to take part in elections is described as "moderate", with 3.2 to 3.3 million willing to cast a ballot. Such a figure would result in a lower turnout slightly below that of the previous early election (already historic low, at 51.33%).
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