The Bulgaria 2010 Review: Domestic Politics

Politics » DOMESTIC | Author: Ognian Kassabov |January 6, 2011, Thursday // 22:55
Bulgaria: The Bulgaria 2010 Review: Domestic Politics (R-L) PM Borisov, Interior Minister Tsvetanov, Regional Devt Minister Plevneliev. Photo by BGNES

The Cabinet: from Economic Recovery and Fight Against Crime to Infrastructure

Bulgaria's 2010 began full-throttle with the GERB cabinet's determined efforts in the two directions set for its top priorities: the fight against corruption and organized crime, and economic recovery and financial stability. January and February saw the renewed spectacular spec ops staged by the Minister of Interior Tsvetan Tsvetanov to catch multifarious organized criminals and curb their activities. The fiscal year began with what Minister of Finance Simeon Djankov proclaimed to be the best budget in Europe, as well as with an unending string of "anti-crisis measures."

End of 2010 we're witnessing much less talk about crime and the economy and we can see priorities significantly shifted to a third topic – infrastructure. The watershed is to be found somewhere in the summer. Djankov's much-vaunted budget had to be revised – that is, scrapped in its initial parameters – in Parliament in July. A string of court decisions showed that the Bulgarian police and prosecution had not gathered adequate evidence against persons that they preemptively dubbed the most dangerous criminals in the country.

Thus, a figure to watch in 2011: Minister of Regional Development and Infrastructure Rosen Plevneliev. In the fall, he has already been marking a growing media presence not only across roads, sports facilities, etc. being built all across the country, but he has also not shied to speak on topics of general political interest. His popularity has also been steadily rising. Plevneliev has the undisputed advantage of being soft-spoken and articulate, unlike the majority of his cabinet colleagues. The other side of the medal – the absence of flashy brusqueness that seems to attract large masses of Bulgarian voters.

Speaking about that, the style and tone of the government's rhetoric has not changed. Police operations have been ostentatiously presented on radio and TV for all the world to see alleged criminals handcuffed and even beaten to the ground. Accusations are worded as final verdicts like there were no courts in the country. Words are strong, politicians freely show feelings. Over 2011 the GERB cabinet has shown itself as definitely savvy of media effects, and has worked toward creating an ambience in which strong imagery is worth more than the substance of the action behind it.

In particular, PM Boyko Borisov has preserved his inimitable rough offhand style. He likes the word "I", and explains political interactions as interactions between people, not institutions. He likes strong emotions too, and in an unforgettable interview over the fall exclaimed: "That's the best I can do in governing Bulgaria! I can do no better! But if Bulgarians think someone else can, let them have the former cabinet once again ride on their backs!"

Bulgaria's Popular Interior Minister: Special Ops and Flats

Borisov might be the reason and cause there is such a thing as the GERB party and cabinet, but even authoritarian rulers have their right hand. One important right hand of the Bulgarian PM is Minister of Interior Tsvetan Tsvetanov, a determined person of simple provenance inspiring trust and uprightness, who by May 2010 already surpassed his boss in terms of popularity among the public. It is precisely Tsvetanov who led the heavy task of combating Bulgaria's endemic organized crime, which of course has been a problem not only for the EU, but also for ordinary Bulgarians.

Tsvetanov's endeavor is the whole string of picturesquely-named special ops (you gotta love the Ministry of Interior's PR department!), but just one of those operations might sum things up. This is the so-called 'Octopus' operation in February, in which ex-secret agent and famous murky businessman Aleksei Petrov was arrested. Petrov was presented as the ringleader of a sprawling criminal organization encompassing a great part of the country, which not only stifled economic life, but also shaped the political stage for years if not decades.

This might well be true about Petrov, but the key word here is 'might'. The preemptive overdoing of his significance might have played a joke on Tsvetanov, as in mid-October the court dismissed a couple of charges against Petrov – spectacularly, among them was the charge of participating and leading an organized crime group – and released him to house arrest after months in jail.

This turn of events provoked the latest flare in a war between the executive and the judiciary that had been going on throughout 2010. Tsvetanov has served himself well of the judiciary's ill repute as corrupted and chronically failing to indict. Judges retorted that the prosecution must do better in gathering and formulating incriminating evidence. This also raised a somewhat primitive but important debate on what "rule of law" means, including the role of the police and the judiciary in that concept.

October was a bad month for Tsvetanov, as controversial RZS party, suddenly enlivened after Aleksei Petrov's release, made a string of allegations that the Minister of Interior had acquired illicitly a number of real estate properties. Tsvetanov had to explain a lot of things to Parliament and to the public. In November Tsvetanov quit the top spot in terms of popularity, leaving it shared between PM Borisov and President Georgi Parvanov.

Cabinet Reshuffles

Over 2010, the GERB cabinet underwent changes in three respects: the spectacle around EU Commission-nominated Foreign Affairs Minister Rumiana Jeleva, the swift turnover of Ministers of Health, as well as the resignation of diaspora minister Bozhidar Dimitrov.

Nominated by the government for the position of European Commissioner of Humanitarian Aid, Jeleva managed to pull off a remarkably swift downfall as early as January, a mere half year since she assumed office. During her hearings at the European Parliament, the new Bulgarian Minister of Foreign Affairs was accused of both conflicts of interests and incompetence. She did not adequately disprove either – and had to both withdraw her candidacy and submit her resignation to the Bulgarian PM. To this moment, Jeleva is still a vice-president of the EPP. Borisov's next choice for Bulgarian Commissioner, Kristalina Georgieva of World Bank fame, has up to now proven an undisputed success, and seems to have done a great job of doing the most from her modest resources for impact, leading her to grab the Commissioner and European of the Year awards by European Voice.

Rumiana Jeleva's resignation led to then-Minister of Defense Nikolay Mladenov assuming her position of top diplomat, while General Anyu Angelov took over the defense department. Mladenov has this far proven an active and well-versed diplomat, with a strong drive to bring together the Balkan countries and underscore their EU perspective. Angelov seems to have his own strong agenda for the Ministry of Defense, which brought him to conflict with President Parvanov.

The second minister from the Borisov cabinet to step down was Minister of Health Bozhidar Nanev. Information surfaced in March concerning conflicts of interest in purchasing unneeded flu vaccines. Borisov was adamant and forced his minister to resign. The next appointment was an eccentric Anna-Maria Borisova, whom the PM curiously reported getting to know at an intercity road intersection. Borisova is to be remembered not only with her erratic public appearances, but also with failing to rein in the ever-controversial reform of the health sector. She was also forced to step down months later, in early October. A hospital director in Kyustendil and vice-chair of the doctor's professional union, Stefan Konstantinov was chosen to take up the relay.

The last alteration in the cabinet for 2010 – the mid-December resignation of colorful Minister for Bulgarians Abroad Bozhidar Dimitrov. A professor of history, Dimitrov had become somewhat of an embarrassment with his explicit language and questionable nationalist views. He also did a showy job of popularizing the relics of St. John the Baptist discovered in his hometown of Sozopol. Dimitrov was forced to step down for none of the above, but rather because of his past with the former communist State Security. When in December it was revealed that a significant part of the present Bulgarian diplomatic corps had participated in State Security, and PM Borisov promised to dismiss them, others requested that he also clear his cabinet of ex-agents. Up to this point, it seems that the PM will choose to drop the office of a Minister for Bulgarians Abroad altogether and not look for a replacement for Dimitrov.

Parliamentary Support of the GERB Cabinet

Parliamentary support of the GERB cabinet was considered a given end of 2009 and beginning of 2010, but as early as spring the first cracks have begun to show. This is one of the more interesting things in Bulgarian domestic politics to watch for development in 2011.

In the 240-seat unicameral Bulgarian National Assembly, GERB have a large minority of 117 MPs. Its backers have been the nationalists from Ataka (20 MPs) and the rightists from the Blue Coalition (14 MPs). Opposition consists of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (40 MPs) and the liberals from ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (37 MPs). The remaining 12 non-aligned MPs are mostly from the controversial RZS party that has turned hostile to the cabinet and has already published alleged information against key GERB figures such as the Minister of Interior.

The Blue Coalition have been from the start more willing than Ataka to criticize particular decisions or policies of the cabinet, making plain that their support is highly conditional. The Blues were worried that the government was spending too much and gathering little revenue, they argued it has failed to really revive the economy, and were irritated by the warming to joint energy projects with Russia. The Blue Coalition's opposition reached its apex this far in December, when they requested the resignation of five cabinet ministers, including the key Tsvetanov, as well as refrained from voting for the state budget for 2011.

Even without the Blues though, the cabinet still has a comfortable 137 MPs majority if we include Ataka. Thus far, Ataka's criticisms have been largely rhetorical and mild, and they have voted with GERB in Parliament. On some occasions though, Ataka have taken a position against the ruling party, such as the recent controversial legislative act that if adopted would dismantle the Bulgarian Academy of Science – an important first occasion in which all parliamentary groups were against GERB's proposal. So the nationalists at the turn of the year seem to hold a pivotal position in Parliament. It seems they are losing ground in terms of popularity and many of their voters are disappointed with Ataka's seemingly unflinching support of GERB policies.

Curious things seem to be happening largely unnoticed around the Movement for Rights and Freedoms. Although their image is strongly associated with the former three-party coalition cabinet, especially its downsides, they have not infrequently tried to distance themselves from their former allies the Socialists. Their criticisms for the government have been much milder and less frequent. In a December interview, vice-chair Lyutvi Mestan spoke of the idea for a turn to the right on the part of the Movement. So MRF might well be once again taking up its well-known role from the past of an opportunist party that takes up any power vacuum and allies with the most advantageous powers that be. For the time being the Movement will nevertheless have to cope with deep image issues, both from the negatives of the former cabinet in which it played a key role. In particular, this includes an unprecedented ongoing trial against its leader Ahmed Dogan for conflicts of interest in receiving a huge consultancy fee for a hydropower project.

Although the dynamics of GERB support in Parliament can be interesting, the same things cannot always be said about the substance of the debate going on in the hall. GERB MPs have proven chronically unwilling to talk, and criticism from the opposition frequently meets deaf ears. Which leads only to accusations being bandied from both parties to no end. Interestingly, not infrequently criticisms to cabinet policies from the old arch-rivals of the 90s, the leftist BSP and the rightist Blue Coalition, actually coincide in substance.

The swampy climate in Parliament was very well exemplified in the single no-confidence vote that the cabinet has faced this far. Tabled by the Socialists and supported by the Movement of Rights and Freedoms, the vote again failed to stir any meaningful debate. To boot, the cabinet chose to attest complete disrespect for parliamentary democracy by not showing up and just sending Stefan Konstantinov, who was elected for Minister of Health just an hour before the start of the debate. The no-confidence vote was rejected with 70 votes "for", 144 "against" and 1 abstention.

Are the Socialists Heading Anywhere?

The status of the main opposition, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, deserves special attention. The Socialists were the ones who suffered the most severe losses in the July 2009 general elections, but they are still the second political force next to GERB. Over 2010, there were still significant amounts internal skirmishes and arguments whether BSP's leader Sergey Stanishev should be replaced over the catastrophic loss in the elections, but as the year went by those worries seem to have subsided. No Socialist figure has been brave enough to stand up and take over from Stanishev. At this point, the party seems to have been consolidated behind its leader. Nevertheless, internal bickering has taken its toll and the Socialists, who traditionally host many different factions, are far from being as united as they can be. Their level of unity being unsatisfactory, it is no wonder they have been unable to formulate and emit focused and motivating messages to the public.

BSP's leader Stanishev is also facing a trial like Dogan – this time for mishandling classified information. The case against him seems to be weak though, and at any rate he has claimed that the trial is completely politically fabricated.

Another important fact about the Socialists end of 2010 is that in November they registered an increase of support to some 14% from about 11% in the beginning of the year. This increased level is nevertheless still unusually low for the Socialist Party, which has traditionally be able to muster significantly more voters. And with GERB support over 33%, it is clear that pure and simple BSP has failed to materialize potential problems in the government to its advantage. The Socialists have massive amounts of work to do if they want to do well in the municipal and presidential elections in the fall of 2011.

The Speculative Future of Bulgarian President Parvanov

2011 is the final year in office of Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov, who's serving his second and constitutionally last term. Parvanov has not hidden his intention not to leave Bulgarian domestic politics after that and it was clear that after having been President, he would hardly relegate himself to a minor position in the periphery. Talk was rife throughout 2010 of the future "political project" of Parvanov.

The launching of the project (or its precursor), symbolically staged on November 11 (one day after the date of 1989 changes in Bulgaria) was a mild disappointment. Styled as a place for alternative thinking, Parvanov's ABV forum, gathering a bunch of mid-range figures such as mayors and former foreign min Ivaylo Kalfin, failed to formulate any clear directions or positions on Bulgaria's future. The hesitant start might be suggesting that Parvanov is for now just feeling the ground.

At present, it is unclear whether ABV will turn into a party (Parvanov's answer is "no"), as well as what its relations will be with the Bulgarian Socialist Party, which Parvanov chaired 1996-2001 before becoming President. Some argue that a left-leaning ABV will steal votes from BSP, thus splitting the political left. Others see a potential cooperation or merging of the two, or even Parvanov coming back at the helm of the Socialists. Still others suspect that Parvanov's populist undertones might unexpectedly make him a good partner with Borisov and GERB, to the detriment of all other political parties.

At the surface, the third option is highly unlikely, for Parvanov's public presence throughout 2010 has been marked by a relentless and drawn-out war of words and actions with the cabinet. Parvanov kept on vetoing laws, and keeps on doing it in the last weeks of December. He openly came out and criticized cabinet policies, individual ministers and the PM for what he saw as specific errors, but also for overall incompetence and rudeness.

Among the most memorable conflicts was that with finmin Djankov in early March, after amid already strained relations Djankov jokingly suggested in a TV talk show that the President might have illegally acquired vast amounts. Parvanov asked for resignation and Djankov ran to his office to apologize, which conversation was not only protocolled, but also duly published at the President's official website for all the world to see the humiliation of the finmin. Parliament tried to stage a dubiously motivated impeachment based on breach of the constitutional right not to be recorded, but failed to get a 2/3 majority against the votes of BSP and MRF.

In December Parvanov rounded up the year with the observation: "PM Borisov's aggression is inversely proportional to the achievements of his cabinet – he tries to cover failure with media aggression." Parvanov's second term as president ends January 2012. In the fall of 2011 it will be clear who Bulgaria's next President will be; 2011 as a whole is pivotal for Parvanov's political future.

'Octopus' Alexei Petrov: New Borisov in the Making?

Parvanov might not be everyone's favorite, but in 2010 another, by all means much less acceptable figure was pushed towards the center of Bulgarian domestic politics. That is Aleksei Petrov, a controversial businessman, ex-secret agent, university professor, and alleged ringleader of an extensive mafia network.

Petrov's rise to fame in 2010 the result of specific – albeit perhaps unintentional – actions of Bulgarian mainstream politicians. In February Petrov was detained in one of the most spectacular operations of the Interior Ministry, under the codename 'Octopus'. Petrov was accused of participating and leading an organized criminal group, money laundering, racketeering, etc. Interior minister Tsvetanov made a case out of presenting his catch as the most important figure of the criminal underworld, as the mythic key to the links between politics and organized crime that have haunted Bulgaria for decades now.

Petrov stayed under detention for months on end, but in October the court released him on house arrest due to deteriorated health. What is more important, some of the accusations against him were dropped as unsubstantiated.

Petrov was swift to take advantage of his newly-found relative freedom and summoned the controversial RZS party with its leader Yane Yanev, who after talking with him released the information that Minister of Interior had allegedly illicitly acquired a string of properties. The Octopus stroke back!

Information of ties between Petrov and circles around Tsvetanov and Borisov were already present, as the Octopus and the Bulgarian PM were allegedly business partners in the 90s. Suspicions were strengthened when faced with accusations against himself, Tsvetanov in panic accused in turn President Parvanov that he is protecting Petrov. Parvanov asked Tsvetanov a number of questions relating to Petrov and GERB financing, which Tsvetanov failed to answer.

Regardless of the worth of those actions, the aftereffect is that public attention was drawn to Petrov, who began to appear as a powerful and enigmatic figure. All this talk might well have created an aura, or it might be that people just want to know why all major politicians are arguing so heatedly about him. Petrov himself did not fail to take advantage again and promised to become active in Bulgarian political life. He stated  that he might start a political movement, that he had his own views on the Bulgarian constitution, and even that he felt it worthwhile to run for President in the fall of 2011.

In the meanwhile, RZS has gathered enough signatures for a petition for a constitutional referendum, asking for more powers for the President and moving away from the form of parliamentary democracy.

2011 should be an interesting one in Bulgarian politics!

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