By Kerin Hope

The Financial Times

In contrast with its Balkan neighbours - Romania, Serbia and Greece - Bulgaria has survived two years of recession without having to seek an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund.

But if an opinion poll by Sofia-based Alpha Research is anything to go by, the governing right-of-centre GERB party (Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria) doesn't get much political credit for this achievement.

Support for GERB, led by Boyko Borisov, the prime minister (pictured), fell to 27.5 per cent this month from 30.4 per cent in June, according to the poll.

This is likely to put Borisov under more pressure to implement economic reforms, although there is no guarantee they will get done.

His party triumphed at general elections in July 2009 when it won 39.7 per cent of the vote.

Yet with support for the opposition socialists at just 13.6 per cent - a marginal improvement on 12.9 per cent in June - the government's stability is hardly under threat.

Moreover, Borisov - a former senior police officer and one-time coach of the national karate team - comfortably survived a no-confidence vote in parliament last week.

GERB's popularity is likely to continue sliding until the economy starts picking up. The European Union's poorest member-state is struggling to emerge from recession with zero growth projected for this year.

Next year's budget assumes the economy will grow by as much as 3.8 per cent, led by an accelerating recovery in exports and increased investment. But the IMF is less optimistic with a forecast of just 2.0 per cent.

George Prohasky, chairman of the Sofia-based Centre for Economic Development, a thinktank, urges the government to push through reforms of the pension, healthcare and tax systems.

"Apart from the economy, the government has also lost popularity because of its frequent shifts of policy on these critical issues," Prohasky says.

Bulgaria may have escaped the rigours of an IMF programme, but Borisov and GERB must overcome the same structural problems as their neighbours to put the economy back on a sound footing - and boost their approval ratings.