Swing States: What to Watch for on Election Night - Report

World | November 4, 2008, Tuesday // 00:00
Swing States: What to Watch for on Election Night ??“ Report: Swing States: What to Watch for on Election Night - Report Map Legend: Dark Blue - Solid Obama 228, Light Blue - Leaning Obama 50, Yellow - Tie 128, Pink - Leaning McCain 14, Red - Solid McCain 118. Map by Newsweek, based on materials by the US Electoral College

Unlike 2000 and 2004, when the outcome of the presidential race remained unknown in the US until early morning (and actually for several weeks after election day in 2000), this time it seems possible that the winner of the presidential race would be known relatively early in the evening, Newsweek reports.

The author of the article, Nate Silver offers an hour by hour guide into the election night.

6 PM EST. Polls close in portions of Indiana and Kentucky.

Traditionally, the two states are the first ones to get called by the networks and the Republicans quickly get 19 points in the Electoral College.

This year, according to Silver, Indiana is far more competitive than usual - the Obama campaign has opened 42 field offices while, until recently McCain completely neglected the state.

The author warns that the responsible thing to do for the networks is to hold off until at least 7 PM to project Indiana. This is the time when polls close in Gary and the northwestern part of the state across the border from Chicago where Obama is expected to have huge advantage with black and working-class voters.

Silver explains that if Indiana is called before 7 PM for John McCain, that would probably mean that the election outcome would not be known until the morning. If the state is called for Obama shortly after the polls close, that could indicate a catastrophe for McCain.

7 PM EST. Polls close in Virginia and Georgia, as well as most of Florida and most of New Hampshire.

Virginia, the author says, is the most important state in this election. If John McCain loses it, his victory becomes unlikely and he would need to pull out an upset in Pennsylvania, holding on to Florida and Ohio, and avoid a sweep out West. Barack Obama has considerably more ways to win without Virginia, but a loss in Virginia would suggest at best a more indirect route to victory.

Obama remains about five points ahead in most polls of Virginia and a quick call before 8 PM that would indicate that the map has changed from 2004 in favor of the Democrats.

According to Silver, Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may be very indicative if the polls are off in this election. Georgia, where 35% of early voters are African-American is the state where Obama is likely to overperform. One interesting fact is that 30% of the African-American voters did not vote in 2004 and are voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models relying on past voting history.

New Hampshire with its nearly entirely white electorate is the state where the polls might overestimate Obama's numbers. It is also noted that New Hampshire was the state where Hillary Clinton became a huge upset for Obama during the primaries.

7:30 PM EST. Polls close in Ohio and North Carolina.

The dynamic to look for in these states involves early voting: more than twice as many people have voted early in North Carolina as did in 2004, and nearly three times as many in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Ohio. Recent polling indicates that Obama may have a lead of 20-30 points among early voters in Ohio and a 10-20 point lead in North Carolina. A low Republican turnout in these states on Election Day may lead to a deficit that McCain would not be able to make up.

8 PM EST. Polls close in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Missouri.

Silver calls for caution when interpreting the results from these three states; Missouri was called prematurely both in the 2006 senate race and in this year's Democratic primary. In each state, Barack Obama is expected to get huge vote totals in the cities (Philadelphia, Detroit and St. Louis respectively) while trying to hold his own in the rest of the state. If the city numbers come in first, Obama's margins will be exaggerated. If the rural numbers come in first, Obama's prospects will be much better than they appear.

Pennsylvania in particular is a state to be watched very closely. If Obama holds onto Pennsylvania the only state where John McCain seems to have been closing the gap over the last week of the campaign then winning virtually any red state (Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri) would probably clinch the election for him.

9 PM EST. Polls close in Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Wisconsin and Minnesota should be called fairly quickly for Obama; if they aren't, that's a sign that something has gone truly wrong for the Democratic ticket. New Mexico looks like a safe Obama-state too, but since its vote-counting is notoriously slow, it may take longer to call.

Colorado, meanwhile, is the last of what the author calls as this election's "Big Three" states (in addition to Pennsylvania and Virginia). If Pennsylvania and Virginia have split their votes (and Obama hasn't picked up Ohio or Florida), then Obama probably wins if he wins Colorado, and loses if he doesn't.

10 PM EST. Polls close in Nevada, Iowa, Montana and New York.

This is the earliest point at which the race might be officially called for Barack Obama because even if he swept every swing state, there aren't enough electoral votes to get him to 270 until New York's 31 come in. But assuming that we don't know the outcome of the election by this time, Nevada, where Obama has expanded his lead and where much of the state has already voted, could possibly offsett a loss in Pennsylvania if paired with other pickups like Colorado and Virginia.

The key area to watch in Nevada is Washoe County (Reno), which John Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 but where the Obama campaign has registered thousands of new voters. If Obama wins Washoe, that means the state and probably the country is his.

11 PM EST. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington.

None of these states are in play in the presidential contest this year.

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