Bulgarian Think-tank Ups Economic Growth Forecast
Business | October 21, 2007, SundayBulgarian economic think-tank Industry Watch said on Sunday it upped its gross domestic product forecast for this year to 6,4%, having downgraded it to 5,8% earlier in April.
"The data available for the first half of the year give reasons for increased optimism for this year, as well as grounds to believe the trend will carry-over into next year," the think-tank said in a report.
Industry Watch also raised its forecast for next year to 6,3%, compared to its earlier estimate of 4,9%.
Bulgaria's statistics board NSI reported last month that the country's economy grew by 6,4% in the first half of the year, to BGN 24,47 B, raising hopes that it would finally buck the downward trend of recent years.
Last year Bulgaria's economy grew by 6,1%, a touch slower than the 6,2% in 2005, and well below the 6,5% official target. In nominal terms, Bulgaria's GDP for 2006 was BGN 49,1 B, or EUR 25,1 B.
The think-tank's economists, however, do not believe that Bulgaria's economy could be overheating.
"Although we expect consumer price inflation to pick up, compared to our earlier forecast, we do not see a risk for the country's monetary and financial stability. It's also important to note that no political party has shown any interest in abolishing the currency board regime," the report read.
Its authors now believe inflation will reach 8,5% this year before slowing down to 5,7% in 2008. In April, they forecast inflation falling to 4,9% in 2007 and 3,9% in 2008, compared to 7,3% last year.
Nine-month data released by NSI show year-on-year inflation reaching 13,1% at end-September and 8,9% for the year so far.
High inflation remains the main obstacle preventing Bulgaria from adopting the common European currency.
Industry Watch's forecast is the averages figure obtained by polling five Bulgarian analysts.
"The data available for the first half of the year give reasons for increased optimism for this year, as well as grounds to believe the trend will carry-over into next year," the think-tank said in a report.
Industry Watch also raised its forecast for next year to 6,3%, compared to its earlier estimate of 4,9%.
Bulgaria's statistics board NSI reported last month that the country's economy grew by 6,4% in the first half of the year, to BGN 24,47 B, raising hopes that it would finally buck the downward trend of recent years.
Last year Bulgaria's economy grew by 6,1%, a touch slower than the 6,2% in 2005, and well below the 6,5% official target. In nominal terms, Bulgaria's GDP for 2006 was BGN 49,1 B, or EUR 25,1 B.
The think-tank's economists, however, do not believe that Bulgaria's economy could be overheating.
"Although we expect consumer price inflation to pick up, compared to our earlier forecast, we do not see a risk for the country's monetary and financial stability. It's also important to note that no political party has shown any interest in abolishing the currency board regime," the report read.
Its authors now believe inflation will reach 8,5% this year before slowing down to 5,7% in 2008. In April, they forecast inflation falling to 4,9% in 2007 and 3,9% in 2008, compared to 7,3% last year.
Nine-month data released by NSI show year-on-year inflation reaching 13,1% at end-September and 8,9% for the year so far.
High inflation remains the main obstacle preventing Bulgaria from adopting the common European currency.
Industry Watch's forecast is the averages figure obtained by polling five Bulgarian analysts.
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