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National Stats Release Key Indicators for Bulgaria

Business | January 2, 2014, Thursday // 10:52| Views: 1614 | Comments: 0
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National Stats Release Key Indicators for Bulgaria: National Stats Release Key Indicators for Bulgaria In the third quarter of 2013 Bulgaria's GDP recalculated in Euro was EUR 11 039 M. File photo

According to Bulgaria's NSI's business inquiries, in December 2013 the industrial confidence indicator kept its level from the previous month.

The report on key indicators of Bulgarian economy was published by the National Statistics Institute, NSI.

In October 2013, the work day adjusted Industrial Production Index rose by 4.1% in comparison with the same month of 2012 (by preliminary data). An increase was recorded in manufacturing by 5.9%; the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply remained at the level of the same month of the preceding year, while in the mining and quarrying industry a decrease by 2.0% was registered.

According to preliminary data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices in the third quarter of 2013 amounted to BGN 21 590 M and the GDP per person amounted to BGN 2 971.

At average exchange rate for the quarter of BGN 1.47704 for 1 US dollar, the GDP amounted to USD 14 617 M or USD 2 011 per person. GDP recalculated in EUR was EUR 11 039 M or EUR 1 519 per person. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP has grown by 0.7%.

Private Consumption

In October 2013, the total consumer confidence indicator decreased by 0.9 percentage points in comparison with its July level, which is entirely attributed to the decreased confidence among urban population. According to consumers' opinion, there is no positive change in the financial situation of their households over the last 12 months. Regarding expectations for the next 12 months, an improvement in living in the villages is observed.

In October 2013, the work day adjusted turnover in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles grew by 6.9% in comparison with the same month of the previous year. The turnover has increased in all economic activities.

More significant growth was observed in "retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods" by 26.6%; in the "retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet" by 25.0%; in "retail sale of audio and video equipment; hardware, paints and glass; electrical household appliances" by 10.7%, in "other retail sale in non-specialized stores" by 9.8%, in "retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment" by 9.2% and in "dispensing chemist; retail sale of medical and orthopedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles" by 8.8%.

In the third quarter of 2013, 63.1% of the produced GDP were spent for individual consumption of the population. The real decrease of the indicator was by 1.2% in comparison with the respective quarter of 2012 (according to the seasonally adjusted data).

Investment

The average capacity utilization in industry in October 2013 reached 69.8%; regarding expected demand over the next months a surplus of capacity is foreseen.

In the third quarter of 2013, the gross fixed capital formation increased in real terms (according to the seasonally adjusted data) by 1.2% in comparison with the same period of the previous year. The relative share of that category in GDP is 20.4%.

Labor Market

In the third quarter of 2013, the total number of employed persons (aged 15 years and over) was 3 012.9 thousand, representing 48.2% of population in the same age group. Compared to the same quarter of 2012, the number of employed persons was by 4.2 thousand lower, while their relative share was by 0.3 percentage points higher.

The number unemployed persons in the third quarter of 2013 was 411.6 thousand, and the unemployment rate - 12.0%. In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year the number of unemployed rose by 4.7% and the unemployment rate - by 0.5 percentage points.

According to the NSI's business inquiries in December 2013, 9.8% of the industrial enterprises pointed out the labor shortage as a factor limiting their activity.

In September 2013, the average wage and salary was BGN 801 (by preliminary data), which is by 3.1% more than the previous month. In comparison with September 2012 the growth rate is also 3.1%.

International Transactions

According to the industrial managers' assessments in December 2013, compared to November, orders from abroad remain unchanged.

In the period January - October 2013, the current account was positive and amounted to EUR 1 134 M (2.8% of the projected GDP for 2013), against a deficit of EUR 201.5 M (0.5% of GDP) in January - October 2012.

The trade balance deficit for the period January - October 2013 amounted to EUR 1 795.8 M (4.4% of the projected GDP for 2013), against a deficit of EUR 2 970.3 M (7.5% of GDP) in the same period of 2012.

Exports of goods (FOB) in the period January - October 2013 totaled EUR 18 637.5 M, increasing by EUR 1 350.6 M (7.8%) year-on-year (from EUR 17 286.9 M).

In January - October 2012, exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year. Imports of goods (FOB) for the period January - October 2013 totaled EUR 20 433.3 M, growing by EUR 176.1 M (0.9%) from January - October 2012 (EUR 20 257.2 M). In January - October 2012 imports increased by 10.1% on a year-on-year basis.

Direct investment abroad in the period January - October 2013 totaled EUR 93.6 M against EUR 166.3 million in the same period of 2012.

Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria for the period January - October 2013 totaled EUR 1 053.7 M (2.6% of the projected GDP for 2013), against EUR 1 847.1 M (4.7% of GDP) in the same period of 2012.

In the period January - October 2013, portfolio investment assets grew by EUR 578.0 M compared with an increase of EUR 286.4 M in the same period of 2012.

Portfolio investment liabilities dropped by EUR 369.6 M, against an increase of EUR 535.0 M in January - October 2012.

The external balance (exports - imports of goods and services) in the third quarter of 2013 is positive.

Imports and exports of goods and services increased by 7.4% and 8.5% respectively, compared with the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Prices

In November 2013, the harmonized index of consumer prices decreased by 1.0%, compared to the same month of 2012. The highest increase was registered in "restaurants and hotels" - by 2.1%.

The Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in October 2013 decreased by 3.9%, compared to the same month of 2012.

Domestic prices fell in the mining and quarrying industry by 10.3%; in the manufacturing by 3.1% and in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 4.9%.

According to business climate inquiry in December 2013 the majority of the industrial entrepreneurs do not expect change of the selling prices over the next 3 months.

Monetary and Financial Indicators

In October 2013, the three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR decreased from 1.05 to 1.03% in comparison with the previous month, whereas the value in October 2012 was 1.56%.

In October 2013, the annual growth rate of broad money (aggregate M3) was 9.5%, compared to 8.1% in September 2013. At the end of October 2013, M3 was BGN 65.659 billion (82.6% of the projected GDP for 2013), compared to BGN 65.218 billion (82.1% of GDP) in September 2013.

The volume of loans to Non-financial corporations, households and NPISHs in October 2013 amounted to BGN 53.656 B (67.5% of the projected GDP for 2013).

In October 2013, loans to non-financial corporations increased by 1.4% annually (1.4% annual growth in September 2013) and at the end of the month amounted to BGN 35.117 B (44.2% of GDP).

Loans to Households and NPISHs were BGN 18.540 B (23.3% of GDP) at the end of October 2013. They decreased by 0.6%, compared to the same month of 2012 (0.6% annual decline in September 2013).

In October 2013, the exchange rate BGN against the US dollar decreases in comparison with the previous month from 1.46 to 1.43.

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Tags: gross domestic product, GDP, industrial confidence indicator, Industrial Production Index, consumer confidence indicator, turnover in Retail trade, individual consumption of the population, private consumption, investment, average capacity utilization in industry, gross fixed capital formation, labor market, employed persons, unemployed persons, labor shortage, wage, salary, international transactions, orders from abroad, current account, trade balance, exports of goods, FOB, imports of goods, foreign direct investment abroad, foreign direct investment in Bulgaria, assets, portfolio, exports, goods, services, imports, prices, harmonized index of consumer prices, producer price index on domestic market, prices in industry, Monetary, financial indicators, three-month interbank market index, SOFIBOR, monetary aggregate M3, loans to nonfinancial corporations, households and NPISHs, exchange rate, NSI
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