Runoff Looms in Bulgaria's President Vote - Poll

There will be a certain runoff in the October 23 presidential elections in Bulgaria between the candidates of the ruling center-right GERB party and the opposition left-wing Socialists.

The results come from a poll of the Center for Analyses and Marketing, revealed during a press conference Sunday.

According to the poll, in the runoff, Bulgaria's former Minister of Regional Development and Public Works, Rosen Plevneliev, who is nominated by тхе Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria, GERB, party will face the candidate of the Bulgarian Socialist party, BSP, Ivaylo Kalfin - a former Foreign Affairs Minister in the Socialist-led Three-Way Coalition cabinet and a current Member of the European Parliament. Plevneliev is going to win the second round with 44% of the vote against 20% for Kalfin, who would enjoy a larger support by about 9% if he is endorsed then by the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms, DPS.

In case there is a runoff between Plevneliev and the other top contender - the first and now-former Bulgarian EU Commissioner and independent presidential candidate, formerly from the party of ex King and Prime Minister, Simeon Saxe-Coburg, National Movement for Stability and Prosperity, NMSP, Meglena Kuneva, Plevneliev will get nearly 42% against 20% for Kuneva.

34% say they would vote for Plevneliev and his running mate – Justice Minister on leave, Margarita Popova; 18% - for Kalfin and his mate - former Culture Minister from the BSP quota and movie star, Stefan Danailov, and 10% for the Kuneva-Lyubomir Hristov couple.

Only 3% will cast a ballot for the leader of the far-right, nationalist Ataka party, Volen Siderov, and his vice presidential nomination, Pavel Shopov; 2.5% are in favor of the candidates of the right-wing Blue Coalition and 1.4% - for the other nationalist party VMRO, All of the rest, out of a total of 18 registered candidates, are under the 1%, including the 0.5% for the conservative Order, Law and Justice, RZS, party. DPS did not register for the presidential elections and say they will announce who they are endorsing only if there is a runoff.

52% of all Bulgarians, eligible to vote, say they plan to go to the polls on October 23; another 23% say they are going to vote, but are still undecided on their favorite; 12% hesitate about voting at all, while 12% will not cast a ballot.

If general elections were to be held today, 33% would vote for GERB.

The poll has been conducted among 1 024 voters between September 30 and October 9, 2011.

Data from it shows that current Bulgarian EU Commissioner, Kristalina Georgieva, is still the most popular politician, followed by a second place tie between Plevneliev and Prime Minister, Boyko Borisov; Interior Minister, Tsvetan Tsvetanov is fourth, while Danailov is fifth and Kuneva – sixth.

Only 20% expect for the elections to be fair and democratic while 48% say there would be violations. Nearly 86%, however, respond they do not fear any repressions – those who are alarmed by political pressure are a small percentage of people, who say it would come from their employer and local powerful businessmen.

Only 5% are willing to sell their vote for money and would take no less than BGN 500; 2% would agree on BGN 50 and up, with sociology experts saying that about 5% would indeed sell their vote, stressing this percentage is alarming, especially in small municipalities where the outcome is often decided by a handful of ballots.

As far as the mayoral elections in Sofia, there is almost a certain victory for current Mayor, Yordanka Fandakova, from GERB, and in case there is a runoff she would face the BSP candidate, Georgi Kadiev.

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