Turkey, Hands Off Bulgaria's Affairs, Will You?

Novinite Insider » EDITORIAL | Author: Ivan Dikov |October 5, 2010, Tuesday // 17:49
Bulgaria: Turkey, Hands Off Bulgaria's Affairs, Will You?

If Turkey ever joins the EU, it will most likely one day be its most important power center. On the other hand if it does not, it will be a neighboring power center that the EU will have to deal with carefully.

In the first case, Bulgaria will very likely be dominated by its powerful neighbor, and in the second – its border with Turkey might turn out to be a new dividing line of civilizational proportions.

In either way, the answer of the whole "Turkey-in-the-EU-or-not-question" will be a decisive one for Bulgaria's future. Neither of these scenarios should necessarily have negative connotations but all of them must be considered.

Monday's meeting between Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was intriguing in the sense that the two state leaders demonstrated mutual respect and understanding on all possible issues.

Of course, in international politics, you often demonstrate one thing while having other goals and intentions. As goes the classical realist dilemma in international relations, despite all niceties Bulgaria has no way of knowing whether Turkey wants to be a benevolent, though more powerful, neighbor, or whether its rise should be a matter of serious concern. Thus, just to be on the safe side Bulgaria had better assume the second scenario, as state actors have been doing in international politics since their inception.

Monday's demonstration of good will and good neighborliness is all the more interesting given the actions of Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov at the Balkan leaders' dinner hosted by Turkey in New York City during the recent UN General Assembly session.

The dinner allegedly turned out to be organized in a fashion that demonstrated Turkey's economic and political weight. This was further manifested by the way certain leaders of smaller Balkan nations – Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Albania – acted at the event literally kowtowing to Turkish President Abdullah Gul.

Bulgaria's Borisov, on the other hand, appeared to have been annoyed by the fact that the state leaders were "not treated as equals." He did not even rise to welcome the host who came late; he made a hasty speech promising to help all those who sought his help in order to join the EU, then went straight to Gul, told him he had more important business, and left, leaving behind Foreign Minister Nikolay Mladenov.

The reactions to Borisov's behavior in Bulgaria have ranged from admiration to criticism for failing to appreciate the warm welcome of the host. His demonstration appears to have been unnoticed (deliberately or not) by the press and public in Turkey, though probably not by the Turkish government.

This is not the first time the former top policeman causes uproar in the Bulgarian-Turkish ties. During his visit to Ankara in early 2010 he literally scolded the Turkish government for supporting the ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) of Ahmed Dogan in Bulgaria, and urged it to sever all ties with it. Back then, Turkish PM Ergodan left these comments with no reaction.

Upon inspecting the construction of the Lyulin Highway by a Turkish company, he was so enraged by the delays that he vowed to never let a single Turkish company in Bulgaria unless the highway in completed on time.

However, the one development that sounded upsetting for the Bulgarian-Turkish relations was the statement of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu that the dispute about the election of the Chief Mufti of the Bulgarian Muslims will be resolved within the friendly relations between Bulgaria and Turkey. It was rather perplexing that this statement was made right after Davutoglu spoke with Bulgarian Foreign Minister Mladenov (at the notorious dinner in New York City), and that Mladenov did not react to it subsequently.

Because what Davutoglu said was an open and brazen intervention in the internal affairs of Bulgaria. First, because the Muslims in Bulgaria are not just ethnic Turks but also ethnic Bulgarians, Roma, Arabs, Kurds, among others; second, because this meant Turkey's self-appointment as their protector.

On Monday, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said the Chief Mufti issue was a purely Bulgarian affair and Turkey had no intention to meddle – for which he got thanks from Borisov. The mind boggles - how did it ever come into question that the election of the Chief Mufti of the Bulgarian Muslims was not a purely Bulgarian affair?

The Chief Mufti issue and the state of the Muslim community is just one permanently hot topic in the Bulgarian-Turkish relations. Others include the fate of the ethnic Turkish minority (the two are not one and the same thing), and even the role of the ethnic Turkish party DPS – which – even though it appears to be using its "Turkishness" only in order to garner political and economic gains for its leadership – is seen by many in Bulgaria as Turkey's "fifth column."

To put it briefly and bluntly, despite all niceties and – probably occasionally sincere – good will and well-wishing – the Bulgarian leadership will most likely find itself forced to seek ways to balance a resurgent Turkey – however small, scarce, and inadequate Bulgarian resources for that might be.

Whether Bulgaria would have to go down that road will largely depend on Turkey's behavior as an emerging regional hegemon. Is Turkey going to be a benevolent regional superpower, and if so, can it really make its neighbors such as Bulgaria believe that?

Within the European Union, the security dilemma mentioned above, which is a basic tenet of the realist theory of international relations (i.e. being constantly suspicious of the other state's intentions) is believed to have been eliminated. Yet, the fact that many – including vocal nationalists in Bulgaria – fear dominance even by an "EU Turkey" seems to be indicative enough – of their fears but also of Turkey's image.

It is true that in the relations between Bulgaria (and others states) and Turkey, to borrow a line from Hollywood romantic comedies, "there is simply too much history." Of course, history alone probably won't cause a scare – unless, there is a reminiscence of its bleak episodes in contemporary approaches. One such example, unfortunately, appears to be the rising "neo-Ottomanism" grabbing greater and greater hold of Turkey's foreign policy under the Justice and Development Party.

Even though Turkey's Foreign Minister Davutoglu, an ever-smiling scholar of international relations, rejects the usage of the term, he has talked about the fashioning of new "Ottoman Balkans" in the sense of a region of security with great weight in international politics, in which Turkey, understandably, will play the leading role.

Why do these "new Balkans" have to be "Ottoman"? Now, the Ottoman Empire might have been a happy place for some groups and individuals. But for the Bulgarians, Greeks, Serbs, and a number of other nations, it was a horrifying period of Balkan history, a period of terror, slaughter, backwardness, and injustice – much to the contrary of what some Western history books tend to present as a place of great religious tolerance.

In the book "The Historian" by American author Elizabeth Kostova, a Turkish character (who nonetheless sends greetings to a Bulgarian acquaintance), says that nobody will ever hate the Turks more than the Bulgarians because the former shattered the medieval empire of the latter.

Intriguing as such generalizations might seem, they are actually far from the truth. It should be known by everybody – especially by the Turks themselves – that while Bulgarians are well-aware of the history of their ancestors in Ottoman Turkey – the regular Bulgarian views the ethnic Turks with great respect. Bulgarians have always respected the Turks for being very hardworking, very diligent, very shrewd, and very welcoming people.

In Bulgarian folklore – as in the folklore of many other nations – Nasreddin Hodja is a prominent figure. However, unlike the folk tales of other people's, he has a Bulgarian version, Hitar Petar ("the Shrewd Peter"). While Nasreddin Hodja and Hitar Petar often compete in their ingenuity and tricks, more often then not, the two of them come together to fight injustice on part of the authorities – obviously, the Ottoman authorities.

During my travels, I distinctly remember two cases of stumbling upon Turkish people – one in New York City, and another one in Berlin – who were extremely happy to meet me because I was from Bulgaria.

All that is to suggest that on the level of the regular people – at least in Bulgaria (insane fascist maniacs excluded) – there can be no animosity against the Turkish people as such. Bulgaria as a state has got no reason and no desire to be in conflict with Turkey (or any other neighbor for that matter).

Yet, should Turkey keep marching down the road of the neo-Ottomanist agenda, many nations, including Bulgaria, will start thinking of ways to resist to best of their ability, of which the storming out of their prime minister will be the most innocent one.

This effect will eventually get through even if Turkey employs a large amount of soft power in order to "soften" the ground; for example, the massive promotion of Turkish soap operas in Bulgaria in the past 2 years (a market previous occupied by hardcore Latin American soaps) is viewed by many as a manifestation of Turkey's lurking ambitions for dominance and influence by using cultural means.

Bulgaria can probably find some decent ways to try to balance Turkey if it decides that the latter is really starting to meddle in its internal affairs – as many Bulgarians have suspected for the past 20 years. Clearly, Bulgaria has no way of balancing alone Turkey, which is emerging as one of the regional giants of the 21st century. Even today's bankrupt Greece, which is larger, more populous, and more wealthy by Bulgaria, has no way of taking up such a task. But there are other ways to do that – primarily by seeking outside support.

From 1878 till 1991, with some interruptions, Bulgaria has balanced Turkey with Russian aid and Russian (or Soviet) security guarantees. Today, it might have to resort to seeking to boost the unity of the EU in order to get such foreign help, or to be an even firmer US ally. (Interestingly, a scenario elaborated in the Russian press says that Bulgaria and Romania will replace Turkey as the top US allies in the Balkans, and will seek "regional domination" empowered by their alliance with the Americans.)

Should such a balancing scenario unravel, God forbid, the Bulgarian-Turkish border might end up being a new frontline in a Huntington-like civilizational divide.

It is probably no accident that Bulgaria is the neighbor with which Turkey has had the best relations and the least problems. The development of the economies of both countries create great opportunities for cooperation that should be utilized.

But at the end of the day, it all boils down to the fact that no matter how large and powerful it becomes, Turkey must be asked politely to please keep its hands off other nation's business. Even though the hopes that Turkey won't seek to transfer its growth into influence and dominance abroad might seem na?ve, it is still up to its leadership to really make it clear which way its going to go, and if the good will expressed by popular Turkish leader Erdogan in Sofia is sincere.

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Tags: turkey, Turkey EU membership, EU, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Boyko Borisov, Abdullah Gul, nationalist, DPS, ethnic Turkish, Movement for Rights and Freedoms, Ahmet Davutoglu, neo-Ottomanism, Chief Mufti, Nikolay Mladenov, Prime Minister, Foreign Minister

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