Somewhat surprisingly, one of the major topics dominating public attention in Bulgaria over the past week was a specific result of a specific public opinion poll that, specifically, fell within the margins of statistical error.

The poll in question showed that Interior Minister and Deputy PM Tsvetan Tsvetanov had higher rating than Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. Tsvetanov was said to be enjoying the approval of 60% of the Bulgarians, while Borisov retained his 57% from a previous poll.

Findings of public opinion polls in Bulgaria can be rather questionable in a number of ways and for a number of reasons. Yet, assuming that the results of that particular one are correct, a couple of conclusions can be drawn regarding public sentiments and the current political situation in Bulgaria – not just from the poll but also from the media reactions to it.

First of all, the Bulgarian Interior Minister has clearly registered a boost of his public approval. Why?

The explanation offered by the polling agency was that Tsvetanov had spearheaded a number of special police operations with colorful codenames in the recent months showing him as a staunch anti-mafia fighter – something the Bulgarian society is said to have been craving for decades.

On the other hand, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, a former top cop who himself has had a similar image in the recent years, has seen a slight drop in his public approval – allegedly because of the many unpopular reforms and the tough economic situation.

Such an interpretation appears to make sense to the extent that public opinion polls in Bulgaria make sense. If correct, it indicates that public image in Bulgaria is based largely on actions with strong demonstrative effect.

Certainly, the GERB government led by Borisov and Tsvetanov appears to be doing more against organized crime and corruption than any other Bulgarian cabinet in a very long time. These efforts have already been internationally recognized by the EU and the US, and there is no doubt that there is finally some dynamic in that respect.

For one thing, at least the high profile kidnappings that terrorized Bulgaria for two years are over. For another, a number of top ranking officials – more than at any other point in Bulgarian history, it appears - have been fired and are facing corruption charges.

In spite of that, however, none of the police operations have led to any sentences yet, and the government is still unable to translate them into clear, tangible results indicating indisputable successes in eradicating corruption and mafia schemes so that everything is still up in the air.

Sure, this might be the fault of the judicial system – and Borisov and Tsvetanov have put forth their idea of special anti-mafia tribunals as a cure. But the bottom line is that if polls and their interpreters are to be trusted, the Bulgarian society as a whole does not seem to be very goal-oriented, i.e. it would approve of people who are doing something even if that something does not lead to particular results (at least not yet). This is the logical conclusion of the findings of the specific public opinion poll that made headlines in the past week.

What makes one doubt such conclusions to some extent is the public and media reaction that followed the poll. For several days, journalists have been “harassing” the Prime Minister with questions about what the higher rating of his closest aide means, and have played upon a recent statement by Borisov that Tsvetanov will be the presidential candidate of the ruling party GERB in the 2011 elections.

The PM got visibly irritated with the constant questions if he was jealous of Tsvetanov, and even though he kept saying he was happy about his aide’s success, he started sending mixed signals by declaring that if the “unhealthy speculations” continue, he might reconsider Tsvetanov’s presidential nomination.

Because the fact of the matter is that the most interesting question that the public opinion poll raised – by accident or on purpose – has to do with the robustness of the Borisov-Tsvetanov tandem ruling Bulgaria.

Socialist leader Sergey Stanishev seems to be right when saying that Bulgaria is being governed by a triumvirate of the GERB party – PM Borisov, Interior Minister Tsvetanov, and Finance Minister Simeon Djankov. Of course, Stanishev sees the word “triumvirate” as loaded with negativism so the word “trio” is probably more appropriate if one wants to be neutral and objective.

However, Finance Minister Djankov is a more specific part of the trio, he falls into the “technocrat” category, and his purely political ambitions seem limited. It was Borisov who set up the GERB party and literally appointed Tsvetanov its chair back in 2006 (until Borisov recently became the formal GERB chair).

Thus, Borisov and his lieutenant Tsvetanov are the backbone of the ruling political party GERB – Borisov as the ultimate leader, and Tsvetanov as the faithful second carrying out operative tasks on building up institutional capacity – first the party, and now the Interior Ministry.

Thus, the attempts to drive an edge between Borisov and his closest aide appear to be a strategy of utmost importance for the PM’s political enemies, the rationale being that Tsvetanov has already achieved strong positions of his own, and if he got fed up with being the second in command, the young GERB party could be shattered.

Such “attacks” have already come from some commentators with publicly unclear background, as well as from smaller but vocal parties such as the conservative party RZS.

Most of these claim that Borisov is the well-intentioned guy while Tsvetanov is linked to murky factors, and is ready to sabotage and trick the Prime Minister when the right moment comes. The recent mentioning of the Tsvetanov’s potential presidential bid has just started to fuel further and further comments of this sort.

At least on the superficial level, Borisov and Tsvetanov resemble Putin and Medvedev in Russia.

As with the Putin-Medvedev tandem, the question remains if Robin wants to overshadow Batman, to use a cliché metaphor.

With all of his actions, Tsvetanov has given no such indication. There is also no visible indication that the business and political factors, and social groups backing Borisov might throw their weight behind Tsvetanov, or that he can make a deal with some opposing forces.

Tsvetanov has followed Borisov closely through various institutions since 2001, and even though twists of fate should not be ruled out, for the time being other speculations are unwarranted.

In the Hollywood superhero film, at one point Batman and Robin begin to have crime fighting relationship problems because of the presence of Ivy's seductive ability with Robin. In today’s Bulgarian case, however, there doesn’t seem to be an Ivy, at least not yet, so Batman and Robin are fighting evil together, and Batman is firmly in command.

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