Financial Times: Borisov heads for victory in Bulgarian election

Financial Times

By Theodor Troev and Nikolay Petrov

A new populist right-ofcentre party led by Boyko Borisov, a former police officer and mayor of Sofia, is set to finish first in Bulgaria's general election tomorrow but will fail to win an outright majority, according to opinion polls.

Bulgaria, the poorest European Union member, faces a fruitless summer of political bargaining that could mean holding another election this year - possibly prolonging the effects of recession and threatening the country's currency board regime, which pegs the lev to the euro.

"A coalition government is the only option, but a stable formula cannot be achieved through left or rightwing groupings alone," said Kancho Stoychev, of Balkan British Social Surveys-Gallup International.

Mr Borisov's party, Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria, (GERB), which campaigns on an anti-corruption platform, is set to capture 26-30 per cent of the vote, against 19-22 per cent for the governing Socialists.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms, representing the ethnic Turkish minority, would come third with 10 to 13 per cent. Another six parties are expected to win seats in parliament.

"It's a bleak political landscape," says Vessela Tcherneva, head of the Sofia office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Forming a coalition in such a political scene will be a slow and difficult process."

The participation of alleged members of organised crime gangs in the election has highlighted the weakness of Bulgaria's judicial system.

Plamen Galev and Angel Hristov, the "Galevi Brothers", were awaiting trial on charges of extortion and racketeering, but are running as independents. They were released from prison last month after making bail. If elected, they would have immunity from prosecution.

Alexander Tomov, a former deputy prime minister facing charges of embezzlement of corporate funds, is also trying to make a political comeback. Mr Tomov was indicted after serving as executive director of Kremkovtzi, Bulgaria's largest steel producer, which was declared bankrupt last year.

Sergey Stanishev, the outgoing prime minister, denies GERB's claim that Bulgaria will need help from the International Monetary Fund after the poll.

But with the economy projected to shrink by about 3 per cent this year, Bulgaria will find it hard to maintain a budget surplus and maintain confidence in the currency board regime.

A prolonged post-election deadlock could stall decision-making for several months. "There could hardly be a worse moment to have a political stalemate," Ms Tcherneva said. * Bulgarian officials are set to meet with Formula One supremo Bernie Ecclestone at next week's German Grand Prix, as the country steps up its pursuit of bringing a race to the Balkan region.

The meeting is set to be held from July 10 to 12 at the Nurburgring, where it is expected an agreement for a Bulgarian race will be discussed.

Bulgaria is hoping to stage its first F1 race in 2011, with a contract running through to 2015 including the option of an extension until 2020.