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197 opinions matching your query "mrposhrat"



#11
mrposhrat - 2 Apr 2012 // 02:03:09

A visa agreement (say 1 month visa free for Georgians in Bulgaria) and direct air flights from say Bourgas might also be helpful!

#12
mrposhrat - 21 Feb 2012 // 02:23:24

"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money [to spend]." - Margaret Thatcher

#13
mrposhrat - 7 Nov 2011 // 02:30:07

In 2010, R&D spending: UK 1.8%, Germany 2.5%, USA 2.7% and Japan 3.4%.

#14
mrposhrat - 1 Nov 2011 // 18:57:17

DeuBug, Allianz is probably your best bet, although I haven't researched it thoroughly!

#15
mrposhrat - 1 Nov 2011 // 18:09:43

Get your money out of Greek banks, save the Bulgarian State! Bankrupt countries can't recapitalise their banks!

#16
mrposhrat - 28 Oct 2011 // 20:16:46

Dino,

Yes, Alpha and Eurobank are merging. Two insolvent banks, forced to sell bonds at 18% interest over 7 months, just to raise capital, despite getting billions in new capital from Qatar at 10% interest! Presumably, the idea of merging the two biggest banks in Greece is to try and make them too big to fail. Seems like a ponzi scheme to me, because I don't know how this new megabank will achieve 12%+ returns without very unsafe leverage, in an environment where the Greek economy is going into a nosedive?

Clearly, the market thinks that 1T Euros is enough for bank recapitalisations and sovereign bond purchases, although 2T Euro was anticipated.

The European banks, which hold the lions share of Greek debt can elect to take a voluntary haircut, but the smaller players will likely threaten forcing a 'credit event', unless they get 100% of their principal returned. Greece will most likely have to repay these smaller players in full.

The Tier 1 capital ratio says nothing about the quality of the banks assets in general. Like I mentioned before, they have to pay extremely high interest on the capital they have recently raised, and I suspect that this might not be sustainable in the medium to long term. Furthermore, the Greek economy is partly in a nosedive because it can't compete with the likes of Bulgaria and Romania.

At the end of the day, who will borrow money from a Greek bank at extremely high rates of interest, other than risky borrowers?

In the medium term, I doubt that Greece can raise it's productivity sufficiently to remain within the Euro, and I doubt that anyone will lend Greece money in the future, unless they can take a simultaneous bet against a Greek currency.

To be frank, watching from afar, it does seem that Greeks appear to be trying to throw gifts out of their pram ;-).

#17
mrposhrat - 28 Oct 2011 // 03:46:06

Dino, take a look at the latest H1 presentation from EFG Eurobank (Alpha Bank), and note the exodus of Greek deposits! That is in contrast to Alpha Bank in Bg (an EFG Eurobank subsidiary), where deposits have remained relatively constant. As of today, given the 50% haircut on Greek bonds, the entire Greek banking system is probably technically insolvent. Evidently, many Greeks seem to have figured out what's going on, but most Bulgarians seem to be blissfully unaware! Now, the big question is, will the EFSF be used to bail out Greek banks, who probably need 60 billion Euros of recapitalisation, given that they're only admitting to needing 30 billion Euros?

#18
mrposhrat - 27 Oct 2011 // 18:22:37

Given the Greek's record, I would assume that they will try to steal as much money as possible from other Europeans. Probably, they've already taken as much capital as possible out of their Bulgarian subsidiaries already, and if they subsequently go bankrupt, then they will effectively have stolen from Bulgarians, Romanians and Serbians, as well as the Germans and the French!

#19
mrposhrat - 27 Oct 2011 // 18:14:20

In other words, Greek banks might pull 85% of the capital in Greek owned Bulgarian banks. I wonder if that includes the deposits of Bulgarians?

#20
mrposhrat - 22 Oct 2011 // 03:33:17

Yes, Meglena, if you get the job of President, you really need to focus your criticism on the entire legal system in Bulgaria.

As a potential foreign investor, I found Bulgarian Lawyers to be lazy and incompetent, probably because there is no sanction against them, such as the Law Society in the UK, for example. In my case, this issue was a major reason that I abandoned my investment plans.

I have also heard stories about Notaries being corrupt! And in their case they are State registered, but clearly they have little fear of the system. Some serious penalties need to be put in place, both custodial and financial?

Bulgarian economic growth is almost certainly held back significantly, because the legal system is so inept!

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