The Scottish"Sunday Herald" provided a refreshing analysis of the fears over another wave of migrants landing on the doorstep of Britain after the accession of Bulgaria and Romania.

The entry of Bulgaria and Romania into the European Union last week once again led to fears over another wave of migrants landing on our doorstep, the article entitled "The UK should expect thousands of migrants ... and welcome them", said. "But that does not mean Bulgarians and Romanians will be arriving in their hundreds of thousands."

The authors admit that these concerns are backed by the fact that the government made a colossal error in its predictions of how many migrants would seek work in Britain following the last EU enlargement in 2004.

"But that does not mean Bulgarians and Romanians will be arriving in their hundreds of thousands. These kinds of forecasts are never absolute but there is considerable evidence to suggest that the UK does not top the list of destinations. Many prefer to head to closer countries with similar languages such as Spain,France and Italy; or countries with stronger historical links such as Germany and Austria."

The article cites a forecast of Capital Economics consultancy, who predict that 50,000 Romanians and Bulgarians will come to the UK in 2007 and another 50,000 in 2008.

Because of the restrictions imposed by the UK government, some of these people could come as tourists and disappear into the black market.

These numbers may be offset by some Polish and Czech migrants returning home to take advantage of their improving economies. And there is a belief that highly educated Bulgarians and Romanians could fill skills shortages in technology and oil companies in Scotland.

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