INDEPENDENT: BULGARIA AND ROMANIA TOO POOR FOR EU ENTRY

Views on BG | February 25, 2002, Monday // 00:00

It is generally accepted that Bulgaria and Romania will not be included in the first round of EU entry because they are the poorest candidates, and political and structural factors would make it difficult for them to meet the criteria set by the EU, Ian Bright, group economist at Baring Asset Management, writes in the British newspaper Independent. He expresses the opinion that in two years' time, the European Union will expand to include another 10 or 12 countries. Two years after that, these countries will join EMU and adopt the euro.

That's the plan and it is being pushed hard, he claims. The 10 most likely accession candidates are Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Turkey is also excluded because of political considerations, though its size (population 65 million) could also be a factor. The most likely candidates have 75 million people between them. Accession therefore represents a large population rise but the economic boost would be modest. These countries represent around 5 per cent of the EMU area GDP, have a per capita GDP around 20 per cent of the EMU average and pay wages around 10 per cent of the EMU average.

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