Turnout to Determine 'Winner' in Bulgaria's European Elections
Voter turnout will be the decisive factor to determine which of the main parties, ruling BSP and the opposition GERB will win May 25's European elections, a recent poll shows.
According to the polling agency Gallup International, the two parties are running neck to neck, with support estimated between 500 000 and 600 000 for each of them.
A lower voting activity, however, could secure the victory of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), while GERB, which is more capable of electoral mobilization, could benefit from higher turnout.
The survey shows that former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) counts on a bigger voter reserve throughout the country, but at the moment is rather failing to encourage them to vote.
Dimitar Ganev, a political scientist, said in a program of the Bulgarian National Radio that if the projected vote is broken up into party segments, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) with 380 000 to 420 000 votes and will undoubtedly have the third place.
Gallup's poll also suggests that ex-journalist Nikolay Barekov's Bulgaria without Censorship will also gain MEP seats, with around 200 000 people to support it on May 25.
President (2002-2011) Georgi Parvanov's Alternative for Bulgarian Revival (ABV), which splintered off the BSP, and the coalition of right parties called the Reformist Bloc, could also mark a success, but only if they manage to attract voters in the last two days of the campaign.
Volen Siderov's Ataka and the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (NFSB), two parties describing themselves as "nationalist", are unlikely to make it into EP.
The threshold for a party to make it into the European Parliament is expected to be around 150 000 ballots, with a projected turnout at 35 to 40% of those eligible to vote.
If the polling agency's estimates match reality, the BSP and GERB will either have respectively 5 and 6 seats or it will be vice versa.
DPS's results would secure three or four MEPs for the party, while Bulgaria without Censorship will have either one or two.
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