A US-led attack against Iraq is highly likely next year, but the war will be quick and its impact on the world economy should be limited, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said. "The effects of a war should be confined mainly to changes in the price of oil," the EIU said in its latest report entitled "Showdown with Iraq: Risks and Opportunities for Politics and Business." The risk of a "big war-related decline in consumer confidence" in the United States or in the other developed countries would be "modest", said the report, arguing that confidence is related more to unemployment prospects which should be unaffected by the war.

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