The distance between the centrist Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party, GERB, and the Bulgarian Socialist Party, BSP, is in the vicinity of 5.6% at the official start of the election campaign, according to a recent poll.

The poll has been conducted by the Alfa Research Agency on the order of the Dnevnik online media outlet.

Compared to March 2013, support for GERB has increased from 21.9% to 22.5%, while the one for BSP is down from 17.4% to 16.9%.

The increase for GERB is attributed to the mobilization of party followers in Sofia and the largest Bulgarian cities having GERB mayors such as Plovdiv, Burgas, and Stara Zagora.

GERB faces shrinking popularity in smaller settlements and impoverished areas.

BSP is starting its campaign with weak motivation of its supporters and inability to attract hesitating voters. The decision of its leader, Sergey Stanishev, to not become Prime Minister if his party was to win the May 12 snap general elections is being met with contradicting feelings. The Socialists have more stable positions in smaller towns and in villages.

After the strong upsurge of the far-right nationalist Ataka in the wave of the mass protest rallies in the country against poverty, stagnation, and political corruption, the support for it is declining and if the elections were to be held now, Ataka would collect 4.9% of the vote.

The nationalist vote is also being redirected to other formations such as the National Front for Rescuing Bulgaria, NFSP – 1.3%, VMRO – 1%, and Gorda Bulgaria (Proud Bulgaria) of MEP Slavi Binev – 0.7%.

Recently formed parties and movements of protesting Bulgarians collect between 0.3% and 1% of the vote.

The weak consolidation of followers and the problems with some local structures leaving, have a negative effect on the party Bulgaria for Citizens of former EU Commissioner, Meglena Kuneva, which now has 2.9% support – 1% down, compared to March.

The ethnic Turkish party Movement for Rights and Freedoms, DPS, keeps its stable 4.8%, while the right-wing Democrats for Strong Bulgaria, DSB, can count on 1.8% over the mobilization of its supporters and despite the recent rift with the Blue Unity of MEP Nadezhda Neynsky.

The poll results further show that it is possible that 15% - 18% of the vote could go to parties that would not be able to overcome the 4% threshold to enter the Parliament.

In addition, in less than a month, expected voter turnout has increased by 7% - 8% to 66% of the respondents or about 3.5 – 3.6 million people.

The highest voter turnout is noted among the elderly and people living in smaller towns and in villages. Young people continue to not recognize adequate political representation and the majority of them say they would not go to the polls.

According to Alfa research sociology experts, the disappointment from political parties after the fall of Communism and economic hardship in recent years make the group of 40 to 50 years of age the most instable – 36% of them have not yet decided what ballot to cast, thus this group can have a serious influence on the outcome.

Dnevnik has assigned Alfa Research to conduct two polls on electoral preferences – at the start and at the end of the election campaign.

The first one has been conducted between April 10 and 14 among 1 030 Bulgarians in voting age, representative of gender, age, and education groups.

The poll has concluded before the announcement of the Prosecutor's Office that its probe has discovered numerous breaches in the police use of special surveillance devices, thus it does not reflect its possible influence on the vote.

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