A local analyst has warned that the rise in Bulgaria's seasonally adjusted gross domestic product may technically spell the end of recession, but does not mean that the crisis is over.

"Bulgaria's economy should expand on an annual basis before we can say the crisis has come to an end. This is likely to happen in the third quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year," Georgi Prohaski, head of the Center for Economic Development, a local think-tank, told Darik radio.

He reacted to a statement by the prime minister earlier in the day, according to which Bulgaria's seasonally adjusted gross domestic product marked an increase of 0.5% in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year thanks to a rise in exports, pulling the country out of recession.

The Center for Economic Development has forecast that Bulgaria will overcome the economic crisis at the end of 2010 or at the beginning of 2011 the earliest.

The Center has criticized the macro framework of the state budget, which projects an economic growth of 3.6% next year. The experts have been firm that this is a very optimistic forecast, which could be risky for the 2011 state budget.

"There is no such generator, which could put the country's economy back on track so fast," Prohanski said.

The fall of Bulgaria's gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 3.6% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2010 from 5,9% in the previous quarter. The country's gross domestic product shrank 5% last year.

Bulgaria's government has revised up to 1% its economic growth forecast for this year as recovering exports bolster the expansion.

The government has pledged to stick to a tight fiscal policy and keep the deficit below 3 % by the end of this year.

The recovery of the Bulgarian economy, which operates in a currency board regime, is lagging behind that of other Eastern European countries.

We need your support so Novinite.com can keep delivering news and information about Bulgaria! Thank you!