The increasingly close ties of Bulgaria and Romania with the US can generate a negative reaction on part of other states in the Balkans, according to Ted Galen Carpenter, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute.

“Bulgaria and Romania are the most likely countries to host the new American missile defense in Europe. If this plan is realized – and I think that there is a 50% chance for that – the most likely hosts are Bulgaria and Romania. Poland is already hesitant. The initial plan, as we know, led to serious resistance in Poland and especially in the Czech Republic. The resistance in Southeast Europe seems to be smaller. Also, Russia’s resistance, even though it seems massive, is not so intensive as it was initially against the plan providing for locating the system in Poland and the Czech Republic,” Carpenter has stated in an interview for the Bulgarian edition of the Deutsche Welle.

The US analyst is convinced that the location of elements of the US missile shield in Bulgaria and Romania will designate the two countries as clearly dependent on the US with respect to their national security.

“Both countries, in my view, have reached the conclusion that it is their interest to fashion maximally close relations with Washington as far as security is concerned. But this might lead to tensions in the relations with other states in the region. The other countries might view them as US pawns and such image won’t be in the interest of Bulgaria and Romania. States that become too close with the United States, make their neighbors nervous,” Carpenter has predicted.

He does not see any potential negative effects from the US missile defense in Europe for Sofia and Bucharest’s relations with the EU institutions in Brussels.

“There is already an informal division of responsibilities. The EU plays the leading role in political and economic matters, but it leaves security issues to NATO. This might change in the future but I don’t seen how the missile defense could compromise the two Balkan countries’ relations with Brussels,” thinks the US security expert.

Carpenter has also pointed out that there had been strong sentiments in Washington in favor of including Turkey in the US missile shield in Europe before the recent worsening of the US-Turkish relations.

“I suspect this sentiment has declined. Washington is no longer certain if Turkey is a reliable partner with respect to security. There are also concerns that Turkey might take up an independent foreign policy course, which seems increasingly hostile to the interests of the US and their key partners such as Israel and the EU. So any plans to include Turkey in the missile shield will be frozen at best,” he thinks.

According to the American analyst, Russia will most likely stay out of the US missile defense in Europe as its inclusion would contradict Russian claims that US plans affect negative its interests.

The other problem is said to be the opposition in the United States to having Russia as a partner in the missile shield, and it will be very hard to overcome.

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