Bulgaria’s hopes to become a regional power strongly allied with the USA have caused it to pull out of the planned large-scale Russian energy projects in the Balkans, according to a Russian security analyst.

Alexei Fenenko, a senior analyst at the Institute on International Security Issues RAN, has expressed this view in a Thursday’s article in the Russian newspaper “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” entitled “Balkan Alternatives – Russian Must Reconsider Its Policies in the Region.”

Fenenko points to the statements of the Bulgarian government last week that amounted to giving up on the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the Belene Nuclear Power Plant, and declaring the EU-sponsored gas pipeline Nabucco a higher priority than the Russian alternative South Stream.

He believes that while Bulgaria has not formally renounces the international agreements for these energy projects, its latest steps have dealt a severe blow on Russia’s policy of “energy dialogue” that it announced back in 2000, and which is aimed at securing three pipelines in the Balkans – Burgas-Alexandroupolis, South Stream, and Constanta-Triest, another oil pipeline.

“Sofia’s refusal to participate in these projects deprives Russia of a key transit country, and other states in the region might follow suit,” says the Russian analyst referring to Greece, Hungary, Croatia, and Slovenia.

He points out that Russian experts believe this development is the result of pressure on part of the United States and the EU over the Balkan nations.

“Yet, the problem is deeper. The breakup of Yugoslavia and the worsening of the US-Turkish contradictions have given Bulgaria hopes of becoming a regional state. In order to achieve this goal, Sofia wants to become a stronghold of the American influence in Southern Europe. This leads to an increase of anti-Russian elements in Bulgaria’s policies,” declares Fenenko reminding about the signing of Bulgarian-US agreements for allowing America to use Bulgarian military bases near the Black Sea, and concluding that the withdrawal from the Russian energy projects logically completes this process.

In his words, however, Russia must continue to fight to preserve its “Bulgarian resource” but it should also consider three alternative partnerships – with Turkey, with Romania, and with Hungary.

Analyzing each of these, the author states that closer relations with Turkey would require Russia to make concessions with respect to the control over the Bosphorus Straits. A close partnership with Romania – which is said to be traditionally against Bulgaria’s strengthening – could create issues for Moscow because of Romania’s disputes with Ukraine, Serbia, and Hungary, and its aspirations towards Moldova. Hungary is seen as an uncertain alternative, all the more so because any Russian attempt to circumvent the Eastern Balkans (i.e. Bulgaria and Romania) through Hungary to reach Serbia and Montenegro would also require readiness on part of Slovenia and Croatia to sign up for joint energy projects.

“There are military and political problems lurking behind the energy problems. Since 2004, Russian experts have feared that the inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania in NATO might change the balance of naval power in the Black Sea. Turning Sofia into a US bulwark might create conditions for this scenario. Is Russia going to take advantage of the Turkish, Romania, and Hungarian resources in order to not lose its crucial positions on the Balkans?,” concludes the Russian analyst.

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